The Macro Trading Floor Momentum Shock: What Next For Markets?
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Oct 23, 2025 Hosts dive into the recent momentum unwind affecting precious metals and speculative stocks. They explore how to read volatility signs during these shifts. A discussion on the potential impact of the upcoming US CPI reveals market asymmetries and dollar responses. The duo forecasts a macro environment influenced by increased money creation and loose central bank policies over the next 6-9 months. They also assess copper as a diversifier in an inflationary cycle and entertain listener trade ideas, weighing both shorting Nasdaq and going long on copper.
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Momentum, Not Fundamentals
- Momentum dominates recent rallies, moving from asset to asset with narratives backfilled afterward.
- Brent and Alf say many price moves were pure momentum, not fundamentals, causing wide divergence across assets.
Use Vols To Gauge Unwind Progress
- Watch out for lower implied index vols as the first domino in a momentum unwind has already fallen.
- Alf says realized vols must fall for the unwind to be truly over, so avoid assuming momentum has ended prematurely.
Broken Momentum Often Means Range
- After a momentum crack, trends often become range-bound or neutral-to-bearish rather than clear bullish continuations.
- Brent compares Rigetti and silver to past examples where trend breaks produced extended corrections, not immediate trend resumptions.
