A discussion with Josh Miller, Assistant Professor of Decision Sciences at Bocconni University, about his and Adam Sanjurjo’s recent work which has reversed the findings of 30 years of research on performance streaks in sports. Their work provides pretty convincing evidence that the hot hand is not a fallacy or illusion after all. I try (and fail) to explain the sampling bias they identified in my own words. In addition we discuss performance under pressure, how athletes know a teammate is hot or not, slumps and the future of research in this area.

More information about my guest:

http://didattica.unibocconi.eu/mypage/index.php?IdUte=111643&cognome=MILLER&nome=JOSHUA%20BENJAMIN&urlBackMy=

Articles/links:

Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?

Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Collection of reactions to Josh and Adam’s papers

More information:

http://perceptionaction.com/

My Research Gate Page (pdfs of my articles)

My ASU Web page

Podcast Facebook page (videos, pics, etc)

Twitter: @Shakeywaits

Email: robgray@asu.edu

Credits:

The Flamin' Groovies - Shake Some Action

Lo Fi is Hi Fi - I’m on a Talk Show

Mark Lanegan - Saint Louis Elegy

via freemusicarchive.org