Global Market Strategist David Lebovitz and J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Global Private Equity Group Co-Heads Stephen Catherwood and Ashmi Mehrotra discuss valuations, sector preferences, the secondaries market, and more. Topics include challenges faced by venture capital and buyouts in 2022, exponential growth of the private equity secondary market, and pros and cons of GP leads and LP leads.
Valuations and activity in the venture capital market were affected by valuation compression, while buyouts remained strong with decreased deal volumes due to tightening debt markets.
In the buyout market, small and mid-sized deals are preferred for their focus on quality and stability of cash flows, while industries with defensible and resilient earnings are favored. In venture capital, early-stage companies with compelling opportunities generate outsized returns.
Deep dives
Performance and Valuations in 2022
In 2022, the venture capital market experienced a significant change, with valuation compression of high growth technology stocks leading to challenges in getting deals done. Valuations were high as the public market corrected, causing a contraction in overall activity. On the other hand, buyouts had a different market dynamic, with activity staying strong in the first half of the year. However, the debt markets tightening led to a decrease in the total volumes of deals. Despite that, valuations of existing private equity portfolio companies held up well, largely due to continued increases in earnings offsetting the compression in valuation multiples.
Strategy in the Current Environment
Given the focus on quality and stability of cash flows, it is preferred to focus on small and mid-sized deals in the buyout market. These segments require less leverage and offer more opportunities for fundamental transformation of businesses. Strategies with industry consolidation or buy-and-build components are attractive in a high-priced environment, as they allow for averaging down the effective entry point and adding scale and capabilities. In terms of sectors, businesses with defensible and resilient earnings are preferred over those that are GDP sensitive. As for venture capital, the focus remains on the early stage, where high-performing companies with compelling opportunities can generate outsized returns.
Trends in Secondaries and Co-investments
The secondary market in private equity has seen significant growth, with strong activity and pricing due to overallocation in the asset class. GP-led and LP-led secondaries are both active, with potential conflicts of interest and the need for careful evaluation of valuations. Co-investments are also seeing good deal flow, especially as GPs are extending investment periods and there is a focus on reducing burn rate and achieving profitability. However, selectivity is key, taking into account the macroeconomic backdrop and the potential for earnings pressure in various segments. Overall, opportunities exist, but due diligence is crucial.
What opportunities exist in private equity? Our experts discuss valuations, sector preferences, the secondaries market and more on a new Center for Investment Excellence podcast episode, featuring David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, and J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Global Private Equity Group Co-Heads, Stephen Catherwood and Ashmi Mehrotra.
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