The Nonlinear Library EA - Case study: The Lübeck vaccine by NunoSempere
Jul 6, 2024
11:16
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Case study: The Lübeck vaccine, published by NunoSempere on July 6, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
Winfried Stöcker is a German doctor. After a career developing immunization technologies, he sells Euroinmun to to Perkin Elmer, a US megacorp, for $1.3B; his own majority stake would be worth $600M, so after taxes a German magazine estimated his net worth at circa $300M. After selling the company, he makes a variety of investments, like buying a nearby airport, and continues working on his own, smaller lab, Labor Stöcker.
He also donates to the Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD), a German far right party, and positions himself as being against more immigration.
Come COVID, the guy realizes that he has the relevant expertise, and in March 2020 develops a vaccine in his personal lab. He tests this vaccine on himself, and later on family and employees.
After some experiments, he becomes sure of the vaccine's efficacy and harmlessness, as it uses the same mechanisms as e.g., Hepatitis vaccines. He decides that, in times of urgency, double blind trials would take too long, and organizes a vaccine drive on his airport. But the Paul Ehrlich Institute and the Landesamt für soziale Dienste sue him, and police interrupt the vaccine drive.
After my resounding success with the first five immunizations (within my own family), I applied for approval for a corresponding study in September 2020 (Wednesday, 2 September 2020, 18:52) with the head of the Paul Ehrlich Institute, Klaus Cichutek. I tried to make it clear to him that within six months I could have immunized all of Germany safely and efficiently against Covid-19.
And yet, instead of eliciting enthusiasm from this important senior civil servant, I aroused his displeasure, apparently because he felt overlooked. Or perhaps there were other interests involved. And so, he had me prosecuted (the proceedings were closed)...
I'm not quite clear on the finer legal points, but although the vaccination drive at his airport seems to have been somehow illegal, Stöcker finds another legal interpretation such that individual doctors can order two vaccine components, an "antigen" and an "adjuvant" and join them together. Separate, they aren't a vaccine, and so its distribution isn't prohibited, per Stöcker's interpretation of the Arzneimittelgesetz.
The story then continues, with Stöcker becoming convinced that his vaccine is superior to more recent mRNA vaccines, and winning some and losing other legal cases. Recently, he boasted of reaching 100,000 vaccinations. But he also received a €250K fine for the vaccination drive in his airport. Cichutek, the bureaucrat, received a Federal Order of Merit, but is no longer the chief of the Paul Ehrlich Institute.
Overall, sources defending Stöcker's point of view are more numerous and accessible than sources presenting the opposite perspective. Still, here is a blog post outlining the lack of information about quality assurance processes, and other problems with the potential vaccine.
Ultimately, it could be the case that the Lübeck vaccine was inferior, and that legal censure was indeed justified. However, my impression is that, on the balance of probabilities, that's not the case. Particularly on the early days of the pandemic, scaling a cheap method seems like it would have been much better than subjecting the population to the also uncertain effects of more infections. And as time goes on, having had different vaccines also seems like it would have been more robust.
Still, there are many technical details that I don't understand.
With this in mind, what are some possible lessons? One clear one seems that Stöcker's support of the AfD generated general antipathy, and reduced his freedom for action. It could have been the deciding factor in having hostile interactions with the opaque bureaucra...
Winfried Stöcker is a German doctor. After a career developing immunization technologies, he sells Euroinmun to to Perkin Elmer, a US megacorp, for $1.3B; his own majority stake would be worth $600M, so after taxes a German magazine estimated his net worth at circa $300M. After selling the company, he makes a variety of investments, like buying a nearby airport, and continues working on his own, smaller lab, Labor Stöcker.
He also donates to the Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD), a German far right party, and positions himself as being against more immigration.
Come COVID, the guy realizes that he has the relevant expertise, and in March 2020 develops a vaccine in his personal lab. He tests this vaccine on himself, and later on family and employees.
After some experiments, he becomes sure of the vaccine's efficacy and harmlessness, as it uses the same mechanisms as e.g., Hepatitis vaccines. He decides that, in times of urgency, double blind trials would take too long, and organizes a vaccine drive on his airport. But the Paul Ehrlich Institute and the Landesamt für soziale Dienste sue him, and police interrupt the vaccine drive.
After my resounding success with the first five immunizations (within my own family), I applied for approval for a corresponding study in September 2020 (Wednesday, 2 September 2020, 18:52) with the head of the Paul Ehrlich Institute, Klaus Cichutek. I tried to make it clear to him that within six months I could have immunized all of Germany safely and efficiently against Covid-19.
And yet, instead of eliciting enthusiasm from this important senior civil servant, I aroused his displeasure, apparently because he felt overlooked. Or perhaps there were other interests involved. And so, he had me prosecuted (the proceedings were closed)...
I'm not quite clear on the finer legal points, but although the vaccination drive at his airport seems to have been somehow illegal, Stöcker finds another legal interpretation such that individual doctors can order two vaccine components, an "antigen" and an "adjuvant" and join them together. Separate, they aren't a vaccine, and so its distribution isn't prohibited, per Stöcker's interpretation of the Arzneimittelgesetz.
The story then continues, with Stöcker becoming convinced that his vaccine is superior to more recent mRNA vaccines, and winning some and losing other legal cases. Recently, he boasted of reaching 100,000 vaccinations. But he also received a €250K fine for the vaccination drive in his airport. Cichutek, the bureaucrat, received a Federal Order of Merit, but is no longer the chief of the Paul Ehrlich Institute.
Overall, sources defending Stöcker's point of view are more numerous and accessible than sources presenting the opposite perspective. Still, here is a blog post outlining the lack of information about quality assurance processes, and other problems with the potential vaccine.
Ultimately, it could be the case that the Lübeck vaccine was inferior, and that legal censure was indeed justified. However, my impression is that, on the balance of probabilities, that's not the case. Particularly on the early days of the pandemic, scaling a cheap method seems like it would have been much better than subjecting the population to the also uncertain effects of more infections. And as time goes on, having had different vaccines also seems like it would have been more robust.
Still, there are many technical details that I don't understand.
With this in mind, what are some possible lessons? One clear one seems that Stöcker's support of the AfD generated general antipathy, and reduced his freedom for action. It could have been the deciding factor in having hostile interactions with the opaque bureaucra...