Zero: The Climate Race Have China’s emissions finally peaked?
Jun 19, 2025
Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and an expert on China's climate and energy, discusses the pivotal moment of China's emissions possibly peaking. He highlights the surge in renewable energy and electrification in transport. Myllyvirta also dives into concerns about the impact of the US-China trade war on climate strategies. Additionally, he examines how China's transition from manufacturing to household consumption could reshape its emissions trajectory amidst economic changes.
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China's Emissions Likely Peaked
- China's carbon emissions have likely peaked and are structurally declining due to renewable energy growth and electrification, not economic crisis.
- This is significant as it changes the trajectory of the world's largest emitter.
Renewables Drive Emissions Decline
- In the past year, China's electricity demand grew above average, yet emissions declined by about 1%.
- This drop is due to renewables covering all electricity demand growth, not economic slowdown or crisis.
Emissions Decline Is Significant But Fragile
- China's emissions have dropped by about 1% over the past 12 months, marking a significant trend change from previous rapid growth.
- However, extreme weather could still cause emissions to spike above previous peaks.