The podcast discusses the distinctions of China's real estate crisis, with over-leveraged developers but not households. It also explores contrasting consumer spending behaviors after the pandemic and the challenges and opportunities of investing in the Chinese market. The rationale for excluding China from emerging markets is discussed, as well as the impact of upcoming elections on investment strategies. The podcast ends with gratitude, a hiatus announcement, and a promotion for Bloomberg Technology Summit.
The current housing crisis in China is different because it is primarily affecting highly indebted property developers, not households who are not leveraged when it comes to real estate.
Despite the challenges facing emerging markets, there are still long-term opportunities, particularly in friend-shoring countries like Mexico, India, and Vietnam, as well as in export-oriented and high-value added economies like India and Vietnam.
Deep dives
Chinese property stocks face concerns and low trading levels
Chinese property stocks are currently trading at their lowest level since 2011, leading to concerns about more defaults among developers. The housing market in China has experienced an overbuilding of apartments that are often owned but not lived in or rented, making it unproductive. Developers have become heavily leveraged, buying excessive amounts of debt and hoarding land and apartments without selling them quickly enough to pay it down. While there have been efforts by the government to shore up the housing market, the current state of the real estate sector remains a concern.
Short-term challenges and long-term opportunities in emerging markets
Emerging market (EM) stocks have faced challenges this year, including weakness in US large-cap tech companies and rising interest rates. EM is dependent on consumption from developed markets and has suffered from a decline in global capital inflows. However, in the long term, there are still opportunities in EM, particularly in the friend-shoring trend where countries like Mexico, India, and Vietnam are becoming attractive for foreign direct investments. Additionally, export-oriented and high-value added economies, such as India and Vietnam, show promise for growth. While short-term volatility and sentiment may remain negative, institutional investors can consider dollar-cost averaging and taking advantage of EM's cheap valuations for long-term potential.
The impact of Taylor Swift attending the Kansas City Chiefs game
Taylor Swift's presence at a Kansas City Chiefs game had a significant impact on Travis Kelce's social media following and merchandise sales. After Taylor Swift visited the game, Kelce gained over 300,000 social media followers and saw a 400% increase in merchandise sales. His jersey also became one of the top five selling jerseys in the NFL. The Taylor Swift effect highlights the influence and attention that celebrities can bring to sports teams and athletes, leading to increased popularity and financial success.
The auction of a $10,000 bill from 1934
A $10,000 bill from 1934 recently went up for auction and sold for $480,000. These high-denomination bills were used for transferring funds between Federal Reserve banks and were not circulated publicly. The auction highlights the collector's market for old bills, particularly those with high denominations. The value of these bills can vary greatly, with some collectors willing to pay significant amounts for rare and well-preserved bills.
The troubles facing highly indebted property developers in China have dominated conversations about the Asian nation’s economy and markets this year. Yet according to Rayliant Global Advisors’ Jason Hsu, there’s an important distinction between this housing crisis and previous ones elsewhere: The developers are the ones who are over-leveraged—not households. And that difference is guiding policymakers’ response.
Hsu, chief investment officer of Rayliant and a co-founder of Research Affiliates, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss China and other emerging markets.
“Chinese households are not levered when it comes to real estate,” he says. “They’re not levered because they can buy their first home with money down—and they pay quite a bit money down—and they generally have to sort of have enough income to cover the payment. That bankruptcy you’re seeing in the developer sector is very engineered. On the household side, there’s not a balance-sheet crisis, because they’re not buying real estate on leverage. So they really don’t think there’s a meaningful problem there.”