Lyn Alden: Can Anything Stop The Runaway Train Of Fiscal Deficits?
Feb 6, 2025
auto_awesome
Lyn Alden, a renowned analyst known for her insights into fiscal deficits, joins the discussion to dissect the implications of ongoing government spending. She argues that current fiscal deficits are here to stay, shaping economic growth and asset prices, including gold and Bitcoin. Alden explores the interactions between increased liquidity and market volatility, offering strategies for investors to navigate potential downturns. She also delves into how fiscal policies could affect Bitcoin's performance and the speculative nature of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund on various asset classes.
High fiscal deficits are expected to persist, influencing investor confidence and asset prices despite potential government spending cuts.
The return of market volatility suggests significant fluctuations may occur in asset valuations due to policy changes and geopolitical tensions.
Investors should focus on undervalued markets while balancing their strategies to navigate a landscape of increasing uncertainty and risks.
Deep dives
The Impact of Fiscal Deficits
Fiscal deficit spending has been a significant driver of economic growth and asset price appreciation in recent years. Analyst Lynn Alden forecasts that high fiscal deficits will continue for an extended period, asserting that nothing will stop this trend. This perspective is crucial for investors as it suggests that large deficits could sustain investor confidence despite other potentially destabilizing economic factors. Alden emphasizes that even with a current administration focused on reducing government spending, the fiscal landscape remains heavily influenced by entrenched spending practices.
Increasing Volatility in Financial Markets
The return of volatility in financial markets is a key theme highlighted in the discussion, with predictions of a shift from a stable macro environment to one marked by uncertainty. Alden notes that the recent period of relative calm has ended, and now investors may experience significant changes in asset prices due to policy changes and external pressures. This heightened uncertainty may lead to larger fluctuations in valuations as market dynamics become more reactive. The presence of tariffs and geopolitical tensions can exacerbate these shifts, influencing both domestic and international markets.
Liquidity as a Driving Factor
Liquidity has played a crucial role in mitigating recession fears and sustaining asset prices, despite aggressive Fed interest rate hikes. Alden argues that while the Fed tightened monetary policy, fiscal actions by the Treasury created conditions that sustained liquidity in the market. The interplay between debt issuance, treasury bills, and quantitative tightening has maintained a positive liquidity environment, which has been beneficial for asset prices. Moving forward, potential shifts in Treasury policy and rising debt refinancing could act as liquidity constraints, posing risks for the investment landscape.
Risks Associated with Growing Fiscal Responsibility
Alden anticipates an 18-month period filled with risks related to potential fiscal tightening, driven by an administration keen on deficit reduction. While she asserts that structurally large deficits are likely to continue, upcoming policy changes could introduce volatility and economic pressure. Measures such as tariff implementation could have mixed outcomes, potentially slowing growth and negatively affecting profitability across various sectors. This uncertain landscape differentiates itself from past trends, making it essential for investors to remain vigilant about fiscal policy developments.
Opportunities Amidst Caution
Despite the potential for volatility and risk in the short term, Alden advises investors to seek out opportunities in undervalued markets and sectors, even amidst broader challenges. She emphasizes the importance of conducting valuation checkups across investment portfolios to identify areas of risk and potential growth. Investors should not merely anticipate downturns but consider diversification and exploring relatively undervalued equities. Alden's insights stress the necessity for a balanced approach that recognizes both defensive and offensive investment strategies in a shifting economic landscape.
One of the biggest forces boosting both economic growth and asset price appreciation over recent years has been the explosion of higher fiscal deficit spending -- sending the prices of all assets including growth stocks, gold and Bitcoin soaring.
Today's guest, analyst Lyn Alden, predicts we'll be stuck with these these large deficits for a long time to come, often repeating in her writing that "nothing stops this train".
Why?
And if indeed so, what are the implications for investors?
And furthermore, with a new US presidential Administration publicly committed to reducing government spending, is the train truly unstoppable?
For answers, we'll ask Lyn directly.
Lyn, thanks so much for joining us today!
BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode