Ken McElroy Show

Builders Are Pulling Back-Even With a Housing Shortage

Jan 30, 2026
Discussion of why builders are slowing construction despite a housing shortage. Examination of rising insurance, HOA fees, labor and financing costs squeezing affordability. Exploration of phased development, builder financing strategies, and how construction debt and land costs shape supply. Consideration of regional insurance and utility impacts on where to buy or invest.
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INSIGHT

Builders Only Build When The Math Works

  • Builders will only build when the math works between construction costs and buyer affordability.
  • High construction debt and required incentives are forcing builders to slow or phase projects.
ANECDOTE

Big Employers Create Local Housing Booms

  • The Taiwan Semiconductor plant near Phoenix sparked huge local demand and drove land and home values up.
  • Ken uses this to show that targeted job growth creates hot pockets even when builders broadly pull back.
INSIGHT

Price Rise Fueled By Low Rates And Shrinking Supply

  • National home prices jumped about $100,000 from 2019 to early 2026 largely because supply ran short and rates fell.
  • Without significant new supply, prices are unlikely to fall much despite other cost pressures.
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