Josef Schachter, founder of Schachter Asset Management, is a renowned energy analyst focusing on oil, natural gas, and uranium markets. In an insightful discussion, he forecasts oil prices may dip to $56-$58 but expects a significant rebound around 2026 due to supply constraints. Schachter highlights Canada's energy potential and underlines the need for investment in infrastructure. Additionally, he presents the bull case for uranium, driven by underproduction and technological advancements, positioning it as a noteworthy investment opportunity.
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insights INSIGHT
2026 Is The Turning Point For Oil Prices
Global oil faces near-term excess inventories but a structural supply gap emerges by 2026 due to reserve declines and underinvestment.
Schachter expects $70 in mid-2026 and around $80 by Q4 2026, with much higher outlier prices later.
insights INSIGHT
Annual Reserve Decline Creates Replacement Need
Global reserve declines average roughly 5–6% annually, requiring 5–6 million barrels per day of new production just to stay flat.
Industry underinvestment means replacement barrels are not being developed, creating a structural squeeze.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Pick Financially Strong Producers
Target companies with strong assets, exploration upside, skilled management, and healthy balance sheets to capture supercycle gains.
Prefer firms that can both grow production and return cash via dividends or buybacks.
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Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josef Schachter to the show. Josef Schachter is Founder, Schachter Asset Management Inc. The discussion centers on the current and future state of the global energy market, with a particular focus on oil and natural gas dynamics. Schachter provides a nuanced view of the oil market, noting both near-term challenges and long-term bullish potential. In the short term, he anticipates oil prices potentially dropping to the $56-$58 range due to significant global inventories. However, he sees a compelling long-term narrative driven by fundamental supply constraints and declining global reserves, which require approximately 5-6 million barrels of new production annually just to maintain current levels. The conversation highlights critical challenges in the energy sector, including underinvestment and lengthy development timelines. Schachter emphasizes that new production requires extensive infrastructure, environmental approvals, and significant capital expenditure. He believes this complexity will contribute to a potential energy supercycle, potentially seeing oil prices exceed the 2008 peak of $147 per barrel. Canada emerges as a key focus, with Schachter noting the country's substantial energy resources and potential for growth. He suggests that Canadian energy companies offer attractive investment opportunities, particularly those with strong balance sheets, exploration potential, and dividend yields ranging from 5-10%. Geopolitical factors and technological innovations play a significant role in Schachter's analysis. He discusses how new extraction technologies, such as fracking and advanced offshore drilling, continue to unlock previously inaccessible energy resources. Additionally, he sees potential risks in global trade tensions and potential economic slowdowns that could impact energy demand. Looking forward, Schachter is optimistic about the energy sector's potential, anticipating global oil demand increasing to 110-112 million barrels per day by 2030. He recommends investors consider diversified exposure across oil, natural gas, and service industries, with investment strategies tailored to individual risk profiles and income needs.
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