ICIS - chemical podcasts Episode 1348: Think Tank: Asia pins hopes on supply/demand rebalance by 2028-2030
May 22, 2025
Luckman Suratman, a journalist with ICIS Newsdesk in Singapore, and John Richardson from ICIS's market development team offer keen insights into the Asian petrochemical sector. They discuss the expected rebalancing of oversupply conditions by 2028-2030 and the notable growth in India amidst regional challenges. The impact of the US-China trade war on global trade dynamics comes to light, alongside the industry's pivot towards sustainability and a growing reliance on US ethane for chemical production.
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Asia’s Chemical Crisis and India’s Growth
- Asia chemical producers outside China face unprecedented crisis from China's overcapacity and trade war impacts.
- India remains a bright spot with growth prospects despite regional oversupply and competition challenges.
Trade War Spurs Industry Consolidation
- Southeast Asia and South Korea face consolidation amid lost China export markets and intense competition.
- US ethane exports are increasingly vital to Asian chemical production, exemplifying trade war product-specific exemptions.
US Ethane Supply and Trade Exemptions
- Oil prices around $60 support sustained US ethane production to meet Asia’s chemical feedstock needs.
- Ethane exports from the US to China are critical and likely to receive trade war exemptions for mutual benefit.