Marketplace Morning Report What will the job market hold in 2026?
Dec 18, 2025
Nova Safo, a journalist covering labor market trends for Marketplace, dives into the changing job landscape as we head into 2026. With hiring slowing post-COVID, Safo discusses key factors like immigration limits and retiring baby boomers affecting the workforce. Insights reveal a forecast of a 'low-hire, low-fire' environment, while potential tax and rate cuts in 2025 could encourage hiring later on. The uncertain impact of AI on jobs, especially for entry-level roles, adds another layer of complexity to future employment.
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Labor Market Cooling Into 2026
- The post-COVID hiring spree has ended and the labor market cooled with unemployment rising from 4.0% to 4.6%.
- Economists expect a
Three Forces Holding Back Hiring
- Factors slowing hiring include immigration policy, retirements, and higher tariffs that make employers reluctant to expand.
- Economists describe the outcome as a "low-fire, low-hire" dynamic expected to persist.
Watch Policy Timing For Hiring Signals
- Expect tax cuts and Fed rate cuts to potentially boost spending and hiring in the second half of 2026.
- Monitor policy rollouts and rate moves to time hiring or major financial decisions.