Biden and Xi had a breakthrough on AI nukes. Enter Trump.
Nov 19, 2024
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Gregory Allen, an expert in AI strategy and national security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discusses the recent agreement between Biden and Xi to prevent AI from controlling nuclear weapons. He delves into the challenges of defining autonomous weapons and the skepticism surrounding arms control in U.S.-China relations. Allen also anticipates the potential impact of a Trump return on AI policy and highlights the need for a global consensus on technology and security amid brewing geopolitical tensions.
Biden and Xi's agreement highlights the importance of human control over nuclear weapons amid rising AI concerns, marking a historic acknowledgment from China.
The potential return of Trump raises uncertainties about future U.S.-China technology policies and the stability of existing agreements, complicating diplomatic relations.
Deep dives
Human Control of Nuclear Weapons
An important agreement was reached between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping regarding the control of nuclear weapons, affirming that humans should remain in charge rather than artificial intelligence. This commitment marks a significant step as it’s the first time the Chinese government has publicly recognized this stance, although it reflects existing U.S. policy. The acknowledgment comes amid broader concerns regarding the military applications of AI between the two nations, particularly in relation to nuclear arsenals. Despite the progress, the agreement remains modest and lacks binding arms control mechanisms, leaving uncertainties about technological advancements on both sides.
Challenges of Defining Autonomous Weapons
The podcast discusses the ongoing difficulties in reaching a consensus on the definition of autonomous weapons among the U.S. and its adversaries, with specific reference to China’s stance. Over the years, various international efforts to define or even ban autonomous weapons have struggled to yield agreement, reflecting differing foundational views between countries. While the U.S. has established a definition that targets autonomy in military applications, China has shown little interest in aligning with such definitions or engaging in restrictions. This discord raises considerable concern within defense circles about how China might unapologetically advance its military capabilities using AI.
Implications of Potential Policy Shifts
As the Trump administration prepares to re-enter the White House, discussions focus on potential shifts in U.S.-China technology policy and trade relations. The expectation of aggressive tariffs and a potential escalation of trade tensions hinges on Trump's prior strategies, which often favored unilateralism over multilateral cooperation. This shift raises fears that prior agreements, even if modest, may be jeopardized, especially if China withdraws from diplomatic discussions over unrelated issues. The differing diplomatic approaches of the U.S. and China could hinder meaningful engagement moving forward, complicating future negotiations around technology and trade.
President Joe Biden held the final meeting of his term with Chinese leader Xi Jinping over the weekend, and the pair walked away with an agreement not to allow artificial intelligence to control nuclear weapons. But their joint statement amounts to a handshake deal — just as President-elect Donald Trump is poised to return to the White House. On POLITICO Tech, Gregory Allen from the Center for Strategic and International Studies joins host Steven Overly to explain why the deal matters and what doubts about AI-powered weapons remain.