As waves of new capacity come onstream in China and the Middle East, stagnant demand growth and falling margins are increasing pressure on chemical companies to permanently close older facilities.

- Wave of oil-to-chemicals projects will flood market

- Global operating rates forecast at 80% to 2030, from 88% long term average

- Huge pressure on non-integrated/high-cost facilities to close

- More plant closures could be driven by high costs, low demand, decarbonization

- High closure costs include environmental cleanup, redundancy payments

- Upstream integration to refineries prevents closures

- Chemical industry could reinvent itself as service provider

- Q3 Europe margins low or negative

- Q4 cracker margins improve as oil prices fall

- No sign of improvement in downstream demand

Taran Killam Disobeys Bridger