Milk Road Macro 2026 Macro Outlook: The Market Is Sending a Warning After a 3-Year Rally w/ Mark Newton
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Jan 1, 2026 Mark Newton, Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, shares insights from his 30 years of experience in market analysis. He predicts that 2026 will be a choppy year of consolidation rather than a full bear market, with key months to buy the dip. Mark discusses S&P targets, the influence of midterm elections, and opportunities in sectors boosted by applied AI. He also highlights potential crypto lows, the outlook for precious metals, and emerging market opportunities as the dollar weakens.
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Choppy But Not Catastrophic Market Year
- Mark Newton expects 2026 to be a choppy year of consolidation rather than a full bear market.
- He forecasts weakness starting late Q1 into Q2, stabilizing by Q3 with a year-end recovery potential.
Equal-Weight Signals Broader Market Breadth
- Equal-weight S&P breaking out shows recent breadth improvement versus cap-weighted S&P distortion.
- But prior months of deterioration left fewer stocks participating, so leadership remains fragile.
AI Hype Versus Classic Bubble
- The AI trade feels overhyped but not an outright valuation bubble like the late 1990s.
- Newton expects transition from AI creators to beneficiaries as the next phase of gains.