In this lively discussion, Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, analyzes the newly brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. He shares insights on the overwhelming relief from both Israelis and Palestinians, the pivotal role of Donald Trump's pressure on Netanyahu, and the complicated phased nature of the agreement. Ibish warns of the fragility of the peace and the significant challenges in rebuilding Gaza, emphasizing how key players must commit to avoiding further conflict for lasting harmony.
The recent ceasefire agreement, influenced by Donald Trump's pressure on Netanyahu, aims to facilitate initial hostages' release and reduce violence in Gaza.
The reconstruction of Gaza post-conflict faces significant challenges, requiring international support and a stable governance structure to prevent Hamas from regaining control.
Deep dives
Ceasefire Agreement and Its Phases
A ceasefire and hostage deal has been reached between Israel and Hamas, bringing a significant shift in the ongoing conflict. The agreement is structured in three phases, with the first phase set to release 33 Israeli prisoners alongside a number of unspecified Palestinian prisoners. Israel will also withdraw from most areas of the Gaza Strip, except for a small outpost, enabling some Palestinians to return to their homes. This initial phase aims to reduce hostilities and set the stage for future negotiations regarding the region's governance and security measures.
Impact of Political Pressures
Political dynamics, particularly the influence of former U.S. President Donald Trump, have played a crucial role in facilitating the ceasefire negotiations. Trump's pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to secure a deal before his inauguration was pivotal because Netanyahu is under significant scrutiny from both the Israeli public and military. This negotiation, which has seen discussions dating back to early 2023, highlights the complicated interplay between international diplomacy and local political pressures. The backdrop of these negotiations showcases both the urgency and the challenges posed by long-standing tensions in the region.
Challenges in Rebuilding Gaza
Gaza faces an enormous challenge in rebuilding after extensive destruction from prolonged conflict, with estimates indicating that over 80% of structures are damaged or ruined. Effective rebuilding will require substantial international support, materials, and investment, with Israel's cooperation imperative for the import of construction resources. The absence of a clear governance alternative may allow remnants of Hamas to reassert control, complicating efforts for a stable civic structure. Thus, the path forward hinges not only on negotiated peace but also on establishing a legitimate governing body that the Palestinian populace trusts.
After months of talks a deal has been done for a ceasefire in Gaza, with it set to start on the weekend with the first phase to include the release of some Israeli hostages.
Incoming US president Donald Trump has taken credit for it and his impending inauguration did give the negotiations a boost.
Today, Hussein Ibish from the Arab Gulf States Institute on whether peace will hold.
He says there's enormous relief felt on both sides, with Israelis overjoyed at the prospect of getting hostages back and Palestinians desperate for a break from the violence.
He highlights the significant pressure placed on Prime Minister Netanyahu by Trump to finalise the deal before his inauguration.
Dr. Ibish also discusses the complexities of the agreement, including the phased approach and the challenges of ensuring a lasting peace.
He notes the potential for renewed conflict if key actors are not fully committed to the ceasefire.
Featured:
Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute
Key Topics:
Gaza ceasefire
Israeli hostages
Donald Trump
Benjamin Netanyahu
Joe Biden
Humanitarian aid
Hamas
Palestinian Authority
Rebuilding Gaza
Middle East peace process
US foreign policy
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