Kamala Chameleon, Biden’s Building Binge, Another BRIC in the Wall
Aug 22, 2024
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Kamala Harris, the current U.S. Vice President, and Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor, delve into pressing geopolitical shifts. They discuss Ukraine’s ongoing conflict and the potential repercussions for U.S. foreign policy under new leadership. The conversation also critiques the Inflation Reduction Act, revealing how promised green advancements are stymied by economic reality. Finally, they explore Azerbaijan's ambition to join BRICS, emphasizing its strategic pivot towards Russia amidst the changing global landscape.
The podcast emphasizes a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, suggesting a potential pivot from supporting Ukraine towards realigning with broader global interests.
It critiques the Inflation Reduction Act's limited impact on creating a sustainable green economy, highlighting failures in transforming the U.S. manufacturing sector effectively.
Deep dives
The Shift to a Multipolar World Order
A growing focus on multipolarity is apparent in global geopolitics, particularly as regional conflicts evolve. The podcast highlights the tension surrounding the ongoing Ukraine conflict, drawing parallels with historical military campaigns. Skepticism regarding Ukraine's military strategies is now surfacing even in mainstream media, indicating a shift in narrative as the implications of the war begin to weigh heavily on future diplomatic relations. This evolving perspective reflects a broader schism within U.S. foreign policy circles, signaling a potential shift away from supporting Ukraine in favor of realigning with other global interests.
Biden Administration's Industrial Promises Fall Short
The Inflation Reduction Act, once viewed as a cornerstone for rejuvenating the U.S. manufacturing sector, is scrutinized as its effects become evident. While there was an immediate spike in factory construction, job growth in the manufacturing sector remains flat, suggesting a disconnect between construction efforts and sustainable economic growth. Reports of start-up failures tied to the act indicate a precarious situation where promised green transformations are faltering. This raises critical questions about the effectiveness of the Biden administration's economic strategies and the future of a sustainable U.S. industrial policy.
Azerbaijan's Strategic Repositioning
Azerbaijan's recent request to join the BRICS organization marks a significant geopolitical shift in the Caucasus region, as it strengthens ties with Russia and aligns against previous Western influences. Following a victorious conflict with Armenia, Azerbaijan’s move reflects a changing balance of power and the necessity of strategic partnerships for energy needs, particularly for the European Union. The podcast underscores the fear that Western aspirations in the region are being undermined as Azerbaijan bolsters its relationships with historically adversarial nations. This evolution highlights the complexity of the geopolitical landscape and the potential ramifications for Western foreign policy.
The Implications of U.S. Foreign Policy Weakness
The podcast discusses how perceived weaknesses in U.S. foreign policy under Biden have left a power vacuum, particularly in Eastern Europe and relationships with Russia. It highlights that, irrespective of future elections, the dominance of established foreign policy elites may limit substantial changes in approach, leading to further entrenchment of existing policies. The conversation hints at a gradual recognition of past mistakes within the U.S. foreign policy framework, but with little indication of a comprehensive rethink or strategy shift ahead. Consequently, ongoing support for Ukraine appears increasingly tenuous, highlighting the changing dynamic in American-led global diplomacy.
As Ukraine punches into Kursk, and the world asks whether this is this more Kaiserschlacht, or more Ardennes Offensive, cooler heads are focused on the bigger picture.
Word is Kamala Harris is going to sack Jake Sullivan. Given that Trump would have sacked him anyway, we’re now into a world where the pro-Ukraine top team is, fait accompli, gone. Which means the US pivot to Asia is increasingly nailed on.
Meanwhile, two years after Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act, it turns out the thick end of four trillion dollars buys you a huge boom in the construction of factories – but not much by way of a green economy. As new research shows many of the pop-up LLCs the IRA spawned are popping into Chapter 12, we’re sifting through the debris, looking for recycling.
Finally, Azerbaijan is the latest BRIC in the BRICS. After their short and decisive war with Armenia, this rising former western ally is now binding itself to Russia. In the global carve-up bigger picture, should we really keep on getting Armenia in the divorce?