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Monetary policy resolutions for a new year - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

7 snips
Dec 19, 2025
In this insightful discussion, Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute and a senior macro strategist, shares her expert views on monetary policy and market forecasts for 2026. She predicts two Fed cuts as well as two ECB cuts, linking these to growth and inflation trends. Monica also emphasizes the risks in equity concentration and the need for portfolio diversification amid macro fragilities. Additionally, she highlights emerging markets as a potential bond-focused diversifier, offering a selective approach to investment.
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INSIGHT

Fed Balances Cuts With Liquidity Management

  • The Fed faces competing pressures from inflation and the labour market that favour a gradual approach to cuts.
  • Balance sheet expansion via T-bill purchases improves liquidity at the margin and supports market stability.
INSIGHT

ECB More Likely To Cut Than Hike

  • Amundi expects the ECB to cut rates twice in 2026 because growth is weak and inflation is moderating.
  • Markets discussing hikes likely overestimate upside inflation risks in the region.
ADVICE

Use Curve Trades Over Duration Bets

  • Keep a neutral duration stance but use curve trades, notably steepeners in US 5-30y, to express term premium and supply risks.
  • In Europe favour steepeners and relative trades as peripheral bonds could outperform core due to supply dynamics.
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