The Milk Road Show Bitwise’s 2026 Thesis: Crypto Enters Its Most Important Phase Yet w/ Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen
Dec 30, 2025
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, and Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, delve into their Top 10 crypto predictions for 2026. They emphasize that crypto is transitioning into a phase driven by institutional demand, moving beyond its speculative roots. Key topics include the declining volatility of Bitcoin, the rise of ETFs buying more than new supply, and the potential political backlash against stablecoins. They also discuss how regulatory clarity could boost Ethereum and Solana, along with the increasing acceptance of crypto by Ivy League endowments.
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Four-Year Halving Cycle Is Breaking
- The four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is weakening and may be replaced by a longer institutional-driven trend.
- Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen expect 2026 to be an up year with new all-time highs due to institutional demand and regulation.
Bitcoin Is Less Volatile Than Commonly Believed
- Bitcoin has become materially de-risked and its realized volatility has fallen versus high-growth tech names.
- Matt argues 2026 contains more idiosyncratic risk in AI than in Bitcoin, making BTC relatively calmer.
ETFs Can Outbuy New Crypto Supply
- ETFs have already been buying more crypto than new protocol supply and that demand pushed prices higher in 2024–25.
- Ryan says institutional flows into Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana ETFs will continue to outpace supply in 2026.