Sam Harris interviews Nick Bostrom, a Swedish-born philosopher, about existential risk and the future of humanity. They discuss the vulnerable world hypothesis, living in a computer simulation, nuclear deterrence, extraterrestrial life, and the dangers of artificial intelligence.
The Vulnerable World Hypothesis raises concerns about the risks associated with technological development and the need for robust institutions for cooperation and conflict resolution.
The Simulation Argument explores the possibility that our reality is a computer simulation created by a more advanced civilization, raising questions about consciousness and the future of civilization.
The Vulnerable World Hypothesis suggests that extreme surveillance might be necessary to prevent catastrophic outcomes, highlighting a trade-off between security and personal privacy.
Deep dives
The Vulnerable World Hypothesis
The Vulnerable World Hypothesis proposes that at some level of technological development, the world is at risk of destruction due to the misuse of powerful technologies. This vulnerability could arise from individuals gaining access to capabilities for causing massive destruction or from changes in incentives that lead to harmful conflict. The only potential remedies for this vulnerability are extreme surveillance and intervention to prevent individuals from causing harm, or effective global governance to avoid harmful conflict between states. These possibilities present ethical and practical challenges, but they highlight the importance of considering the risks associated with technological development and the need for robust institutions for cooperation and conflict resolution.
Living in a Computer Simulation
The simulation argument explores the possibility that we are living in a computer simulation created by a technologically advanced civilization. The argument suggests that if a civilization reaches technological maturity, it would likely produce ancestor simulations, highly detailed computer simulations of their historical predecessors. If these simulations are numerous, then it is more likely that you are living in a simulation rather than in the original reality. This argument raises questions about the nature of consciousness, the future of civilization, and the likelihood of a post-human future. While the simulation argument is not conclusive, it highlights the philosophical implications of advanced technology and the exploration of our place in the universe.
The Prospects of Extreme Surveillance
The vulnerable world hypothesis raises the possibility that extreme surveillance might be necessary to prevent catastrophic outcomes. This hypothesis suggests that in order to stabilize a world where individuals have significant destructive capabilities, continuous monitoring and intervention may be required. Extreme surveillance could involve ubiquitous tracking and recording of individuals' actions, the use of AI for real-time analysis, and rapid intervention capability. While this notion raises ethical concerns and potential risks, it also presents a trade-off between security and personal privacy. It is important to carefully consider the implications and ensure a balance between surveillance measures and individual rights.
Effective Global Governance
The vulnerable world hypothesis also highlights the need for effective global governance to prevent harmful conflicts and arms races between states. This involves establishing mechanisms that can reliably resolve global coordination problems and mitigate the risks associated with emerging technologies. Robust institutions for global cooperation, conflict resolution, and the prevention of destructive competition among nations are essential. While achieving effective global governance presents significant challenges, it offers the potential for a more peaceful and cooperative world that can address existential risks.
The Simulation Argument
The speaker discusses the simulation argument, which proposes that it is highly probable that our reality is a simulated environment created by a more advanced civilization. He argues that computing power needed to simulate human history is vastly greater than the computing power available in our current civilization. Therefore, if a non-trivial fraction of mature civilizations dedicate some of their resources to simulating reality, the number of simulated individuals would greatly outnumber the non-simulated ones.
The Great Filter
The speaker introduces the concept of the Great Filter, which refers to one or more highly improbable steps that civilizations must overcome to reach a stage of space colonization and become observable to us. The absence of evidence of extraterrestrial life suggests that the Great Filter may lie ahead of our civilization. Discovering independent life on Mars or within our solar system would provide evidence against the Great Filter being in our past, implying that our future prospects are limited, potentially hindering our chances of becoming a space colonizing super civilization.
Sam Harris speaks with Nick Bostrom about the problem of existential risk. They discuss public goods, moral illusions, the asymmetry between happiness and suffering, utilitarianism, “the vulnerable world hypothesis,” the history of nuclear deterrence, the possible need for “turnkey totalitarianism,” whether we’re living in a computer simulation, the Doomsday Argument, the implications of extraterrestrial life, and other topics.
Nick Bostrom is a Swedish-born philosopher with a background in theoretical physics, computational neuroscience, logic, and artificial intelligence. He is a Professor at Oxford University, where he leads the Future of Humanity Institute as its founding director. He is the author of some 200 publications, including Anthropic Bias, Global Catastrophic Risks, Human Enhancement, and Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, a New York Times bestseller.
Episodes that have been re-released as part of the Best of Making Sense series may have been edited for relevance since their original airing.
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