Stray Reflections The Confidence Game: AI, Trump, and the S&P 500
15 snips
Sep 28, 2025 
In a captivating discussion, Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insights and author of The Confidence Map, dives into how shifts in social mood influence markets and politics. He highlights Donald Trump's positioning within his confidence quadrants, examines AI's fragility impacting economies, and compares today’s market dynamics to the 1999 bubble. With insights on investor behavior and resilience, Atwater emphasizes the journey from panic to action, urging listeners to embody control in a landscape of uncertainty.
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Confidence Needs Certainty And Control
- Confidence requires both perceived certainty and perceived control to feel real.
- Lacking either shifts behavior predictably across four emotional quadrants.
Decisions Happen In The Launch Pad
- Most decisions are made in the launch pad where control exists but outcomes are uncertain.
- Treat investments as choices made amid unknown outcomes, not as certainties.
Stories Drive Mood And Market Moves
- Stories and shared narratives amplify social mood and drive quadrant shifts.
- Extremes in mood produce the most extreme, reinforcing stories and behaviors.
