The Briefing “The time to build” at the UN Global Refugee Forum 2025, and Brazil’s 2026 forecast
Dec 17, 2025
Fernando Augusto Pacheco, Monocle's senior correspondent and Brazil specialist, discusses the dynamics shaping Brazil's 2026 presidential race, highlighting Flávio Bolsonaro's rise in the political arena. Matthew Saltmarsh, Chief spokesperson for the UN Refugee Agency, addresses severe refugee funding cuts that impact millions. Despite challenges, he shares an optimistic outlook for the Global Refugee Forum, emphasizing the importance of building partnerships and focusing on economic inclusion to support refugees and their host countries.
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Fractured Right Helps Lula For Now
- Brazil's right is fractured, boosting Lula's relative lead despite him not reaching 50%.
- Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates Bolsonaro-family support but may not expand the right's voter base.
Runoff Math Favors Incumbent Lula
- If Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are the runoff pair, polls show Lula widening his lead to the mid-40s.
- Right-wing fragmentation may prevent a single alternative from uniting anti-Lula voters.
Lula's Dominance Masks Succession Gap
- Lula's age prompts less public concern now because he appears energetic and engaged.
- The left lacks a clear successor with comparable charisma if Lula's era ends.