Doug Sosnik on the State of the Race: Trump, Biden, and 2024
Feb 15, 2024
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Doug Sosnik, former Clinton political director, discusses the 2024 presidential race, emphasizing the need for Biden to make an affirmative case for a second term. The polarization in the country makes a Biden v. Trump rematch a race of 'high floors and low ceilings.' They explore the influence of a third-party challenge and the potential outcome if Trump or Biden is not renominated.
Biden must make an affirmative case for a second term while overcoming doubts about his age and health.
Swing voters, third-party candidates, and double haters will play crucial roles in determining the outcome of the race.
Traditional campaign moments like VP picks, conventions, and debates may have diminishing impact due to strong polarization and deep-seated divisions in the country.
Deep dives
Biden and Trump solidified their positions as likely nominees
Both Biden and Trump have solidified their positions as the likely nominees for their respective parties. Despite initial skepticism, Trump has gained support from the Republican base, while Biden's lack of serious opposition in the primary can be attributed to the support of political elites in the Democratic Party.
The race has changed with Biden's support going down
In the past four months, the race has seen a shift, with Trump's support staying relatively the same while Biden's numbers have declined. Factors such as the events in Israel and Gaza and a general perception of Biden being out of touch have contributed to this decline. Biden's job approval ratings have also reached a low point, raising concerns for his campaign.
Swing voters, third-party impact, and double haters are key factors
As the election approaches, swing voters, third-party candidates, and double haters (those who dislike both candidates) will play crucial roles in determining the outcome. Swing voters, especially in key battleground states, will be decisive. The impact of third-party candidates, similar to 2016, cannot be discounted. Furthermore, there is a significant portion of voters who dislike both Biden and Trump, and their decisions will weigh heavily on the final result.
The impact of traditional campaign moments
Traditional campaign moments like VP picks, conventions, and debates have historically been seen as pivotal in elections, but the current political landscape suggests that the impact of these events may be diminishing. With the tectonic plates of tribal politics firmly entrenched, these events are less likely to sway voters who are deeply divided along partisan lines. While external factors such as the economy and external events like the invasion on October 7th could still impact the election outcome, the strong polarization and deep-seated divisions in the country make it difficult for these traditional campaign moments to have a significant impact.
Transitioning to a new era
The current political environment reflects a significant transition period in American history. The country is undergoing a major shift from a 20th-century industrial society to a 21st-century digital and global one. This transition, driven by economic, technological, and demographic changes, has caused significant upheaval and instability. Both political parties are grappling with the challenges of navigating this transition, with Democrats seeking to balance progressive policy directions while appealing to moderate voters, and Republicans trying to define their identity beyond Trumpism. This period of transition is likely to continue for several more election cycles until emerging generations take over and reshape the political landscape based on their values and priorities.
Where does the 2024 presidential race stand? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, and how might such an unpopular rematch play out? What could happen if it's not Biden and Trump?
To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, former political director in the Clinton White House and author of this week’s important New York Timesop-ed,“Biden Can’t Count on Trump’s Unpopularity Anymore.” According to Sosnik, a Biden campaign strategy of aiming to “disqualify" Trump in the minds of voters is insufficient: Biden also must make an affirmative case for a second term while overcoming doubts about his age and health. Because the polarization in the country remains so intense, another Biden v. Trump race would be a world of “high floors and low ceilings.” According to Sosnik, Trump—now slightly ahead in the polls—is "bumping up to the high end of his ceiling,” while “Biden is bumping up to the bottom of his floor.” Kristol and Sosnik also consider the possible effects of a third-party challenge in a polarized environment, and how the race might take shape if either Trump or Biden is not renominated.
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