The Bitcoin Bull Market Is CANCELLED?! | Jeff Park

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Nov 19, 2025

Jeff Park, Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC, delves into Bitcoin's recent price drop and the potential for a bear trend. He discusses liquidity pressures, the influence of leverage and futures, and how institutional demand shapes the market. Park explores endowment strategies like Harvard's, highlighting varied investment approaches. Despite the downturn, he finds glimmers of optimism, identifying factors that could trigger a dramatic price increase. He also raises concerns about risks like fake news and quantum computing threats.

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INSIGHT

Bitcoin Is A Trend Asset

Bitcoin behaves as a trend asset: buy high, sell higher, not a classic buy-low value play.
Market momentum and trend breakouts drive price more than fundamental valuation in the short term.

INSIGHT

Leverage And Perps Move Price

Leverage, especially perpetual futures and open interest, is a primary driver of crypto price moves.
Lack of leveraged long interest since October has left shorts room to push price lower until institutional bids arrive.

INSIGHT

Institutions Provide The Durable Bid

Institutional capital (ETFs, corporate treasuries) is likely the next durable bid for Bitcoin.
Those investors take multi-year views and will compare Bitcoin to other macro assets, not altcoins.

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Jeff Park is the Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC. In this conversation, we break down why bitcoin’s price has been slipping and whether the market is actually signaling the start of a bear trend. Jeff explains the key forces driving sentiment — from liquidity pressures to global macro shifts — and why a slightly negative year for bitcoin might not be as bearish as it sounds.We also dig into what it would take for bitcoin to rip back toward the $125K–$150K range, plus how geopolitical dynamics in Japan, China, and elsewhere are shaping the broader investment landscape.

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Timestamps:

0:00 – Intro
1:50 – Why is bitcoin dropping? Should investors be worried?
4:36 – Do technical levels like CME gaps actually matter?
8:13 – Harvard’s bitcoin position and how endowments invest
12:15 – Has optionality changed bitcoin’s market dynamics?
15:14 – What Jeff is watching for real signs of optimism
17:30 – Is the 4-year cycle officially dead?
23:18 – Macro risks: liquidity, global conflict, & Trump premium
25:56 – What would a true upside black swan look like?
28:05 – How do you underwrite quantum risk today?