Israelis anticipate the response — with Haviv Rettig Gur
Aug 5, 2024
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Haviv Rettig Gur, a prominent journalist for the Times of Israel, shares his insights on the precarious tensions between Israel and Iran. He discusses the Israeli public's mixed feelings about military strikes and the importance of a new strategic approach. Gur examines the potential for a regional war and assesses the IDF's readiness for escalating conflicts. He also highlights the complexities of negotiating with Hamas and the delicate balance of military action and diplomacy needed to ensure Israel's security.
Israelis exhibit a balance of confidence in their military capabilities while simultaneously expressing anxiety over potential escalations from Iranian retaliatory actions.
The geopolitical climate reveals hesitance from the U.S. and European nations to confront Iran, raising concerns about the risks of further regional conflict.
Deep dives
Iran's Regional Influence and Aggression
Iran poses a significant threat to various Middle Eastern countries, evidenced by its growing influence in places like Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. The regime has engaged in assertive military actions, including a bold assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, which raises concerns about potential retaliatory actions from Iran that could lead to a regional war. The current geopolitical climate reflects a palpable tension where countries like the U.S. and European nations appear hesitant to confront Iran's aggressive posture, leading to fears of increased boldness from the Iranian regime. This behavior enhances Iran’s perceived capacity for destruction, with the world seemingly reluctant to intervene.
Israeli Public Sentiment and Government Strategy
The Israeli public exhibits a complex sentiment towards their government’s military actions against high-profile targets in Iran and neighboring territories, such as attacks on Hamas leaders and assets in Lebanon. Most citizens understand the necessity of these assertive strategies against a backdrop of an ongoing, multi-front conflict that could escalate further. There is significant support among Israelis for retaliatory measures, as they grapple with a feeling of being under constant threat from Iranian proxies. However, the public also expresses a degree of anxiety, recognizing the potential for these actions to precipitate a larger conflict, while still feeling resolved to bolster their own security.
The Risks of Escalation in Military Engagements
Israel's proactive military actions against Iranian and Hezbollah targets introduce significant risks of escalation, particularly given Iran's potential for revenge through asymmetric warfare. The historical precedent of retaliatory attacks, such as Iran's bombing of the AMIA Jewish Community Center, underscores this volatility. Strategic military operations must carefully navigate the home front’s safety while retaliating against hostile actions that threaten Israeli civilians. Despite the potential for severe repercussions, there is an urgency recognized within Israeli society regarding the need to counter ongoing threats and ensure national security.
Assessing Military Readiness for Conflict and Alliances
Israel faces a unique challenge in militarily engaging with adversaries like Iran, particularly given its longstanding strategy of avoiding extended combat on home territory. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) must adapt to an evolving threat landscape that requires different tactics and strategic partnerships to mitigate the risks associated with multi-front warfare. Engagement with allies, especially the U.S., is critical, requiring Israel to reassess its defensive posture and align military strategies accordingly. Ultimately, the ability to ensure national survival amidst escalating pressures reflects a complex interplay of military readiness and the strategic use of international alliances.
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Is the region ready for an Israel-Iran war? Is the U.S. ready?
What is the state of readiness of the IDF for such a war?
Is Israeli society ready for such a war?
Could such a war be avoided? What would de-escalation look like?
Most Israelis we have spoken to over the past few days have struck a balance between (tensely) trying to anticipate Iran’s next move and expressing confidence in Israel’s capacity for this new phase. One of those Israelis joins us for this episode. Haviv Rettig Gur of the the Times of Israel returns to the podcast.
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