The podcast explores the frozen US real estate market due to higher mortgage rates, with affordability worsening at the fastest pace on record. It analyzes the impact on various sectors of the industry and discusses the concept of household formation. The chapter also explores the concept of assumable mortgages and potential solutions to improve affordability in the current market.
The recent increase in interest rates has significantly decreased housing affordability in the US real estate market, but house prices remain near their all-time high due to low inventory.
Homeowners with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are disincentivized from moving houses, contributing to the frozen real estate market, while low housing starts and demographic trends of aging in place further tighten the supply of housing.
Deep dives
US Real Estate Market: Low Inventory and Housing Affordability
The US real estate market is experiencing a significant decrease in housing affordability, primarily driven by the recent increase in interest rates. Despite this decrease, US house prices remain near their all-time high due to low inventory. Home buyers today need to earn $115,000 per year to afford a median priced home, compared to $45,000 per year in 2012. Low inventory is causing both buyers and sellers to hold out for better circumstances, resulting in a decline in home sales and a frozen real estate market.
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages and Supply Constraints
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is a key factor in sustaining house prices in the United States and causing the housing market to freeze up. Homeowners with these mortgages are disincentivized from moving houses as they would have to give up their low-interest rate loans and take on new loans with higher interest rates. Supply constraints, including homeowners reluctant to sell due to good rates on their existing homes and demographic trends of aging in place, further contribute to the high home prices. Additionally, there has been a decline in housing starts since the global financial crisis, leading to a tightening supply of housing.
Affordability, Existing Homeowner Gains, and Potential Solutions
While house prices have remained resilient in the face of higher interest rates, the frozen real estate market has had economic impacts, including a decline in home builders' confidence and a hit to the earnings of real estate agents. Affordability in the US housing market is at a historic low, making renting considerably cheaper than buying. Existing homeowners with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have experienced significant gains in their mortgages' market value as rates have soared. There are potential solutions to the frozen market, such as porting a mortgage or utilizing assumable mortgages, but overall affordability needs to normalize through falling prices, declining interest rates, or rising disposable income.
Send us a textHigher mortgage rates should be expected to depress the housing market, and the US has just seen one of the steepest rate increases in history.Would-be homebuyers are facing massive sticker shock, with measures of affordability worsening at the fastest pace on record. The US real estate market has frozen up with the volume of new sales slowing at a faster pace than even during the aftermath of the global financial crisis.Does this mean that home prices are about to collaps...
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