Philippe Gijsels | Shifting Economic Sands... Meditations On 'The Fourth Turning'

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Apr 15, 2025

Philippe Gijsels, Chief Strategy Officer at BNP Paribas Fortis and co-author of 'The New World Economy in 5 Trends', discusses the shifting economic landscape and the 'Fourth Turning' theory. He illuminates how generational cycles shape societal changes and the chaos fueled by current U.S. leadership. The conversation highlights innovative thinking, addressing inflation's impact on personal finance, rising wealth inequality, and the multi-globalization trend affecting labor dynamics. Philippe's insights bridge economic theory and practical implications.

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INSIGHT

The Fourth Turning Cycle

The Fourth Turning predicts cyclical crises every 80 years reshaping society deeply.
After crisis, a new generation rebuilds a better world, though the process is challenging.

ANECDOTE

Fictional Economist Dialogues

Philippe imagined fictional dialogues between famous economists like Ricardo and Malthus in a historic London pub.
This creative method connects past ideas to today's world, enriching understanding.

INSIGHT

Innovation as Collaborative Table

Innovation is like a table where diverse smart and practical people assemble parts to create new inventions.
When all necessary components emerge, innovation can happen rapidly, exemplified by AI's rise.

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The New World Economy in 5 Trends

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Koen Luyckx

Philippe Gijsels

The Curiosity Score

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Rick Vera

The alchemy of finance

George Soros

In 'The Alchemy of Finance,' George Soros provides a detailed account of his investment strategies and introduces the concept of 'reflexivity,' which challenges traditional economic and financial theories. The book includes a theoretical and practical analysis of financial trends, historical perspectives on financial markets, and a real-time experiment detailing his trading activities. It also features a new chapter by Soros on the secrets of his success and a new Foreword by Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The book emphasizes the role of thinking participants in financial markets and the self-reinforcing trends that arise from their interactions[2][4][5].

The Fourth Turning

What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny

Neil Howe

William Strauss

The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future based on a provocative theory of American history. The authors identify a distinct pattern where modern history moves in cycles, each lasting about the length of a long human life, composed of four twenty-year eras—or 'turnings'—that comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. The book offers bold predictions about how America’s past will predict what comes next, particularly focusing on the roles of Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials during times of upheaval.

Antifragile

Things That Gain from Disorder

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Albino Santos Mosquera

Genís Sánchez Barberán

In 'Antifragile', Nassim Nicholas Taleb delves into the concept of antifragility, arguing that some systems not only withstand stress and disorder but actually benefit from them. The book builds on ideas from his previous works, such as 'Fooled by Randomness' and 'The Black Swan', and is part of his five-volume philosophical treatise on uncertainty, 'Incerto'. Taleb provides examples from various fields, including science, economics, and history, to illustrate how antifragility can be achieved and how it contrasts with fragility and robustness. He also discusses strategies like the barbell strategy and optionality, and critiques modern society's attempts to eliminate volatility, which he believes are harmful. The book is praised for its revolutionary ideas and multidisciplinary approach, though it has also received criticism for its style and some of the author's views on mental health and other topics.

Where Good Ideas Come From

The Natural History of Innovation

Steven Johnson

In 'Where Good Ideas Come From', Steven Johnson delves into the natural history of innovation by identifying seven key patterns: the adjacent possible, liquid networks, the slow hunch, serendipity, error, exaptation, and platforms. Johnson argues that innovative ideas often result from slow hunches that develop over time through interactions within 'liquid networks' of diverse minds. He also highlights the importance of environments that facilitate the mixing and mingling of ideas, such as big cities, which are more innovative due to their superlinear scaling of creativity. The book draws on historical examples and contemporary cases to illustrate how these patterns contribute to groundbreaking innovations.