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The View From Apollo
2025 Economic Outlook: Firing on All Cylinders
Dec 16, 2024
Torsten Sløk, Apollo's Chief Economist, shares his insights into the 2025 Economic Outlook, focusing on a projected 2.3% GDP growth and a low unemployment rate of 4.3%. The discussion highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy and the role of AI in driving productivity. Geopolitical tensions and their impact on economic stability are explored, with a cautious optimism due to recent de-escalations. Sløk also addresses the effects of rising government deficits on interest rates and the changing dynamics of consumer spending.
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Quick takeaways
- The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2025, supported by strong fundamentals in consumer spending and job creation.
- Although inflation is expected to gradually decline to 2.5%, managing service-sector wage inflation remains a pivotal challenge for the Federal Reserve.
Deep dives
2025 Economic Outlook Highlights
The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, with GDP growth forecasted at 2.3% for 2025, still above long-term projections. The unemployment rate is anticipated to slightly rise to 4.3%, yet this remains low by historical standards. Inflation is expected to show gradual decline but remains a concern, with projections indicating a rate around 2.5%, which is not quite at the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Overall, despite slight slowing, the economy shows strong fundamentals, particularly in spending and job growth.
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