Lacy Hunt: Both Presidential Candidates Will Only Make Our Debt Problem Worse
Aug 29, 2024
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Dr. Lacy Hunt, a distinguished economist and former Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, dives into pressing economic issues. He critiques both presidential candidates, deeming their plans inadequate to address the national debt crisis. The conversation highlights the dangers of declining savings and the disconnect between optimistic labor data and economic realities. Lacy also analyzes market movements, emphasizing risks in the high-tech sector and the implications of interest rate changes, revealing the complexities facing investors today.
Both presidential candidates' economic plans are criticized for exacerbating national debt without offering sustainable solutions to current problems.
The alarming trend of negative national savings highlights a shift away from traditional economic remedies, raising doubts about future fiscal conditions.
Current monetary policy is deemed overly restrictive, suggesting the Federal Reserve may need to make substantial adjustments to address inflation effectively.
Deep dives
Concerns About Presidential Policies
The proposed programs from the current presidential candidates are criticized for potentially worsening economic conditions rather than addressing existing problems. Both parties appear to advocate for increases in the national debt, leading to concerns about further diminishing returns. The absence of effective fiscal strategies raises doubts about how these plans will be funded, creating skepticism around their sustainability. Consequently, neither party presents credible approaches to rectify the significant issues facing the economy.
Negative National Saving Trends
The persistent trend of negative national saving in the United States is alarming, as it indicates a shift away from traditional Keynesian remedies for economic downturns. With five consecutive quarters of negative savings, the economy is facing a profound dilemma; people are not saving even when consumer confidence is low. This unprecedented situation has only occurred during previous economic crises, including the Great Depression. The ongoing economic expansion amid declining national savings marks a crucial challenge for fiscal policy moving forward.
Impact of Monetary Policy and Inflation
Current monetary policy is described as overly restrictive, with real monetary growth showing significant decline. The trend indicates that while nominal monetary supply initially increased due to stimulus measures, the substantial slow down afterwards has left the economy with tighter conditions. This misalignment underscores that the Federal Reserve may be behind the curve in addressing inflation expectations and monetary liquidity. Consequently, the concern is that inflation rates might not achieve anticipated targets unless substantial adjustments are made.
Economic Conditions and Household Formation
The discussion highlights severe demographic challenges, such as declining household formation and a record low birth rate, potentially impacting future economic growth. Comparing the U.S. to other regions, it's noted that average age indicators in major economies are rising rapidly, exacerbating the aging population issue. This demographic shift suggests a shift towards lower spending in the economy, complicating growth prospects further. The interconnectedness of aging populations and economic performance raises concerns about the long-term economic outlook.
Responses to Market Signals and Fed Actions
Current market signals indicate a divergence between expected government interest rate cuts and the realities of the job market and economic performance. Despite the Fed signaling potential rate cuts, there is skepticism about whether this will lead to favorable conditions or further complications. The evolving economic landscape suggests that investors may turn to longer-duration bonds as a safety trade amid anticipated declines in T-bill yields. Observations from historical patterns indicate that significant corrections in equities may arise if the current trajectory continues unchecked.
Now that it seems the Fed has officially pivoted, what will lower interest rates mean for the economy and financial markets?
Will they be enough to keep recession at bay and prevent a further rise in unemployment?
What will the trillions of investor capital currently parked in T-bills and money markets go if the yields on those assets go down?
For a true expert's view on these important questions, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.
We also discuss his views on the economic plans (as understood so far) of both presidential candidates. Punchline: Lacy is not impressed.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#federalreserve #election2024 #economy
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