

On the Margin: The Last Bitcoin Cycle That Matters | Charles Edwards
5 snips Sep 26, 2024
Charles Edwards, a leading expert on Bitcoin cycles and ETFs, shares his insights on why the present cycle may be the most pivotal yet. He discusses how Bitcoin ETFs could reshape institutional investment, drawing intriguing parallels to gold's market. Edwards emphasizes the shifting macroeconomic landscape and its effects on Bitcoin's future. He also explores on-chain data trends, miner revenues, and how current market dynamics may signal a departure from traditional cycles. A must-listen for crypto enthusiasts!
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Declining Halving Cycle Relevance
- Bitcoin halving cycles will become less relevant due to increased market efficiency and institutional adoption.
- Miners are more industrialized, and equities markets price Bitcoin further in advance.
Bitcoin Seasonality
- Bitcoin’s price typically underperforms in Q2 and Q3, while Q4 and Q1 show the strongest returns, mirroring traditional equity market trends.
- This seasonality, combined with post-halving mining adjustments, positions the next six months favorably.
Post-Halving Miner Dynamics
- After a halving, Bitcoin miners face revenue cuts, forcing less efficient operations to adapt or shut down.
- This period of adjustment, along with recent sell-offs, contributes to market volatility before an eventual price recovery.