My Friend, the Gambler

My friend has been important to me for 6 or 7 years.

I had no idea that he had any money until about 3 years ago.

My friend is a professional gambler.

No, he doesn’t gamble on green felt tables with cards or dice. He gambles on NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange.

“Oh, he’s an investor,” you say.

“No, I’m a highly informed gambler,” he responds.

My friend wins 7 out of every 8 bets and makes about $100,000 a week.

No, I won’t give you his name and it wouldn’t do you any good if I did. He won’t share any tips with you or me or anyone else and he certainly doesn’t need our money. He is a lone wolf hunting a lone wolf’s prey.

My gambling friend doesn’t embrace traditional stock market wisdom but calculates the size of his bets according to his degree of confidence using the Kelly Criterion, an obscure formula used by professional gamblers since 1956.

I, too, am a professional gambler who determines the size of his bets according to the degree of his confidence. But I don’t gamble my money on the stock market. I gamble my client’s money on ad campaigns.

My ads make millions of dollars a week, but I don’t get to keep the money. It goes to the people who believed in my methods.

Investors don’t like to think of themselves as gamblers. That’s why so many of them lose. The same is true of advertisers. Investors and advertisers like to believe they are scientists.

Investors fall in love with stocks.

Advertisers fall in love with media.

Gamblers love only the dance.

My friend taught me that.

He and I agree that traditional wisdom is usually more tradition than wisdom. Do you agree with us?

If you do, here are a few of those non-traditional thoughts about advertising that have been responsible for those millions of dollars a week.

1. Your choice of media doesn’t make your ad perform. Your ad makes your choice of media perform. So be careful not to count on “reaching the right people.” Instead, be careful to say the right things.
2. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided.
3. Don’t try to “educate the customer,” believing they would choose you, “if only they understood.” Talk about something they already care about. Speak to a felt need.
4. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided.
5. If you try to reach the right person at the right time with the right message, you will forever be frustrated with feast-and-famine results. But if you reach the masses with a memorable message long before they need you, and continue to reach them until they do, you will be the person they think of immediately and feel the best about.
6. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided.
7. If you have a product with a short purchase cycle (like food and entertainment,) you can expect quick results to your advertising. But if you have a product with a long purchase cycle, you need to prepare yourself for dismal results at first, but those results will get better and better when your ad campaign finally gets traction.
8. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided.
9. Entertainment is the only currency with which you can purchase the time and attention of a too-busy public.
10. Without an element of surprise, there can be no delight.
11. Repetition is effective. Repetition is effective. Repetition is effective.
12. If you win the heart, the mind will follow. The intellect will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided.

If you want to read some fascinating case histories, take a look at this new blog.

And never forget that you are, in fact, gambling.

Roy H. Williams