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Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42Macro, discusses inflation, sticky inflation, and the potential need for the Fed to increase the inflation target to 3%. They dive into the divergence between core and headline CPI numbers, analyze producer price inflation, and predict higher rates of trend inflation.
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Quick takeaways
- The divergence between headline and core CPI suggests a phase transition in inflation dynamics.
- The concept of sticky inflation indicates potential challenges for asset markets in the medium to long term.
Deep dives
The Inflation Dynamics: Understanding Headline and Core CPI
The first main idea discussed in the podcast is the acceleration of headline CPI, primarily driven by energy. The three-month annualized inflation rate reached 3.9%, the highest in several months. Food and energy were the major contributors to this increase. On the other hand, core CPI continued to decelerate, driven by a deflationary trend in core goods. Additionally, there was a breakdown in shelter inflation. This divergence between headline and core CPI suggests that we may be witnessing a phase transition in inflation dynamics.
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