Rajan Menon discusses Putin's confidence in Ukraine, US weapons supply, and potential peace deals. Analysis of Russian casualties, challenges in US weapon delivery, and Putin's nuclear warning. Insights into the ongoing war and the outlook for Ukraine.
Putin appears more confident due to Russia's advantage in depleted Ukrainian supplies.
New US weapons reaching Ukraine raise hopes of repelling invading forces and impact war dynamics.
Deep dives
Putin's Confidence in Battlefield Success
Vladimir Putin's confidence in the battlefield has increased due to Russia's advantage in depleted Ukrainian supplies and their strategic momentum. With significant Russian losses amounting to nearly 400,000 casualties, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains intense. Putin's reliance on continued arms supplies has impacted the dynamics of the war, highlighting the importance of Western support and the urgency for Ukraine to effectively utilize donated weapons.
Prospects for a Peace Deal
The prospect of a peace deal in the near future appears minimal as the conflict in Ukraine continues. While recent weapon supplies from the West could potentially alter the balance of power, negotiations for a peace settlement may not materialize until around 2025. The challenge lies in defining achievable goals for Ukraine, preventing negotiations from a position of weakness, and navigating the complexities of territorial concessions and Ukraine's future orientation in NATO.