Netanyahu gambled on a Trump presidency. Will it pay off?
Nov 6, 2024
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Amos Harel, a senior military analyst for Haaretz, dives into Netanyahu's strategic gamble on a Trump presidency and its implications for Israel. He discusses how Netanyahu's decisions, including firing Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, are intertwined with the U.S. election. Harel highlights the potential U.S. support Netanyahu hopes to gain to stave off his criminal trial and advance controversial judicial reforms. Their conversation also touches on the fraught dynamics of Israeli and U.S. politics during this turbulent period.
Netanyahu's alignment with Trump is perceived as a risky strategy to secure U.S. support for his political survival amid legal challenges.
The dismissal of Defense Minister Gallant highlights Netanyahu's prioritization of political alliances over military strategy, jeopardizing Israel's national security.
Deep dives
Impact of Trump’s Election on Israel
The potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency is seen as a complex situation for Israel, creating mixed sentiments regarding Netanyahu's ambitions. Trump's ambiguous stance towards international affairs, including his past aggressive posture towards Iran, raises questions about his future policies. While he has expressed a desire to 'stop wars', the implications for Israel’s military strategy, particularly regarding its engagements with Iran and the Palestinians, remain uncertain. Observers note that Netanyahu has historically favored a Trump presidency, but the reality of what that partnership would look like affects different geopolitical relationships and Israel's security strategies.
Netanyahu's Controversial Decision
Prime Minister Netanyahu's abrupt firing of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reveals deeper political motivations amid crises in Israel's security and military strategy. This decision, made under pressure from ultra-Orthodox factions regarding draft laws, illustrates Netanyahu's willingness to prioritize political alliances over military necessities. The timing of the dismissal also shifted attention away from accusations regarding security leaks and his leadership failures during wartime. Many believe this move underscores a troubling trend in Netanyahu's governance, one that may threaten Israel’s democratic processes and military effectiveness.
The Dilemma of Israel's Defense Leadership
The appointment of Israel Katz as the new Defense Minister in place of Gallant raises serious concerns about the future direction of Israel's defense strategy. Katz's lack of military experience compared to Gallant puts the country at risk during a sensitive period, marked by ongoing threats from regional adversaries. Analysts warn that Netanyahu's integration of extreme right-wing elements into his government complicates efforts to navigate the current military landscape effectively. As the country faces ongoing conflict, the leadership crisis may hinder necessary strategic responses and harm Israel’s national security.
**The sound of a siren warning of rocket fire is heard in this episode of the Haaretz Podcast**
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "gamble" on extending the war in Gaza in anticipation of Donald Trump winning the U.S. election seems to have paid off, according to Haaretz senior military analyst Amos Harel.
In conversation with Haaretz Podcast host Allison Kaplan Sommer, Harel said that Netanyahu "kept promising total victory, what he actually had was sort of a Forever War. It was not forever, but he was waiting for November, and for January 20 and for his friend Trump to be back in the White House."
What is the Israeli premier hoping to get out of his bet? Harel believes that in renewing the Bibi-Trump bromance, Netanyahu believes he can win U.S. support for measures that will stop his criminal trial - Trump after all, will certainly sympathize - and move ahead with the judicial coup that will damage Israeli democracy.
Also on the podcast, Harel discusses and explains what stood behind Netanyahu's decision to fire Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on the day of the U.S. election, and his not-so-veiled threat that the IDF Chief of Staff and head of Shin Bet security service may be next if they don't fall in line.