LUKE KEMP: Will our global civilisation go the way of the Roman Empire?
Nov 5, 2024
auto_awesome
Luke Kemp, a historical collapse expert and honorary lecturer at the Australian National University, delves into the factors behind civilizational decline. He examines how political dynamics and systemic inequality have historically led to societal collapse, drawing parallels to modern civilization's interconnected threats like climate change and AI. Luke introduces the 'Mortality of States Index' and discusses the fragile future of societies amid growing elitism. His insights highlight that understanding past empires is essential for navigating today's global challenges.
Civilizations typically last around 336 years and decline due to factors like inequality and societal fragmentation rather than singular events.
Inequality plays a crucial role in societal collapse, and addressing it through inclusive institutions can help mitigate instability and unrest.
The interconnectedness of modern societies enhances vulnerabilities to global crises, highlighting the need for resilience through community engagement and democratic participation.
Deep dives
Understanding Civilizational Collapse
Civilizations tend to follow a pattern of rise and collapse, with a common historical observation that complex societies typically last around 336 years before facing significant decline. This decline is often characterized by various factors, including societal fragmentation and power distribution issues, rather than a singular event. The conversation dives deeper into the definition of collapse, emphasizing that it signifies a significant breakdown in political, economic, and population structures rather than total extinction. By examining historical case studies, it's noted that not all civilizations completely vanish; many undergo transformations as they respond to pressing societal pressures.
Inequality as a Core Driver of Collapse
Inequality emerges as a central theme in the discussion around societal collapse, with theories suggesting that as societies grow, the gap between the elite and the general populace widens, producing instability. This imbalance can lead to civil unrest and competition among elites, exacerbating societal tensions. Historical examples illustrate that high levels of inequality correlate with societal strife and chaos, which can lead to a collapse of systems. The research suggests that addressing inequality through inclusive institutions could mitigate the risks associated with collapse.
Interconnectivity and Systemic Risks
The modern world is characterized by an unprecedented level of interconnectivity, which amplifies both opportunities and risks. As systems become integrated, local disturbances can escalate into global crises, as demonstrated during the 2008 financial meltdown. The discussion highlights that interconnected societies can buffer small shocks but may also magnify larger threats, leading to widespread crises. This interconnectedness is juxtaposed with the idea that as societies grow in complexity, they may become less resilient to shocks, increasing their vulnerability to collapse.
Responding to Crises: Lessons from History
Historical episodes of societal collapse demonstrate that how a society handles crises significantly influences the outcomes of such events. Research indicates that societies with inclusive, democratic institutions that empower citizens tend to navigate crises more effectively, fostering resilience. People often display altruism and cooperation during disasters, contradicting the notion of post-collapse chaos. Emphasizing community engagement and social cohesion can help societies better manage challenges, reframing the narrative around collapse to highlight potential for collective action and positive change.
Valuing Stability Over Complexity
The conversation concludes by emphasizing that achieving societal stability is a key factor in reducing the risks of collapse, shifting focus from merely observing complexity in systems to prioritizing inclusivity and equity. Societies need to seek ways to lessen inequalities and enhance democratic participation to create a more stable environment. By referencing various historical and modern contexts, the importance of addressing the root causes of systemic issues is reinforced. Ultimately, engaging in societal dialogue and fostering cooperation can pave the way toward a more resilient future.
Luke Kemp (historical collapse expert; associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk) has studied past civilisations and mapped out a picture of how long they tend to last before they collapse, what tends to tip them and what (if anything) can be done to stall their demise. Luke works alongside Lord Martin Rees and Yuval Noah Harari, is an honorary lecturer in environmental policy at the Australian National University and his collapse insights have been covered by the BBC, the New York Times and the New Yorker. His first book, 'Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse' will be published in June 2025.
In this episode I get Luke to provide a bit of a 101 on how civilisations do indeed decline and perish and to update us on the latest theories on how and whether ours might make it through. The answer is surprising.
SHOW NOTES
Here’s Luke’s original report on complex civilisation’s lifespans.
A few past Wild guests are referenced by Luke. You can catch the episode on Moloch with Liv Boeree here, the interview with Adam Mastroianni here and my chat with Nate Hagens here
The first chapter of my book serialisation – about hope – is available to everyone here
And here are the two chapters that I reference at the end
--
If you need to know a bit more about me… head to my "about" page
For more such conversations subscribe to my Substack newsletter, it’s where I interact the most!