Bloomberg Businessweek Trump’s Venezuela Oil Revival Plan Is a $100 Billion Gamble
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Jan 6, 2026 Francisco Monaldi, Director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University, delves into the complexities of reviving Venezuela’s oil industry, a plan that could cost over $100 billion. He highlights the daunting challenges, from years of neglect to the need for an investment of about $10 billion annually. Monaldi discusses the implications for U.S. energy security, the role of China and Russia, and the necessary conditions for companies to invest. He emphasizes that success hinges on Venezuela's political transition and its potential effect on global oil markets.
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Venezuela's Technical Upside Is Huge
- Venezuela could multiply oil output four- to fivefold technically, but political barriers remain decisive.
- Francisco Monaldi warns the country can matter for global oil supply if governance and investment return.
Restoration Is A Long-Term Security Play
- Restoring Venezuelan output would boost Western Hemisphere energy security but is a long-term play, not a short-term fix.
- Monaldi emphasizes current global oil surplus makes immediate gains less critical than future supply roles.
Demand Likely Stays Strong Next Decade
- Major agencies see oil demand not declining in the next decade and risk of scarcity by decade's end.
- Monaldi highlights few countries besides Venezuela can significantly add supply in that timeframe.