Deidre Woollard and Motley Fool Senior Analyst Sanmeet Deo discuss the major players and growth expectations for HVAC companies, including Carrier's transformation. They also explore the challenges faced by family businesses in the heat pump industry and the difficulties of cooling in cold transport and data centers. Additionally, they delve into the business drivers and market cap of a distributor in the construction industry.
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Quick takeaways
The HVAC industry in North America is experiencing steady growth due to rising disposable incomes, increasing applications in smart homes, and growing demands for heat pumps.
The top 10 manufacturers dominate the HVAC manufacturing market, while distributors like Watts Go and Ferguson play crucial roles in providing stable recurring revenue streams.
Deep dives
Growing HVAC industry driven by innovation and rising demand
The HVAC industry in North America is expected to grow about 4% from 2023 through 2028. This $45 billion industry generates $150 billion in annual revenue and employs over 1.5 billion people. Rising disposable incomes, increasing applications in smart homes, and growing demands for heat pumps are among the major drivers in the industry. The US Department of Energy is also investing in improving energy efficiency standards. With over 90% of US homes using air conditioning and the focus on energy efficiency, the industry is experiencing steady growth.
Key players in HVAC manufacturing and distribution
The HVAC manufacturing market is dominated by the top 10 manufacturers, including Train, Lennox, Carrier, and Ream. These companies comprise about 85% of the total market share. The distributors, such as Watts Go and Ferguson, play a crucial role in getting HVAC products and services to contractors and homeowners. Watts Go controls about 13% of the $50 billion market for distributed HVAC parts, while Ferguson is the number two HVAC distributor with a $32 billion market cap. Both companies have a significant portion of their business coming from repair, maintenance, and improvement services, providing stable recurring revenue streams.
Future trends and opportunities in the HVAC industry
Indoor air quality and smart thermostats are emerging trends in the HVAC industry. The indoor air quality industry is projected to grow from $9.8 billion to almost $12 billion by 2027, driven by increasing awareness and demand for cleaner air. Smart thermostats, like the Google Nest, offer energy-efficient temperature regulation and are expected to see significant growth, with the industry projected to reach $3.8 billion in 2029. Additionally, the industrial sector, including data centers and cold storage, presents growth opportunities. Data centers require efficient cooling technologies, and the market is expanding due to the increasing power consumption and heat generation. The aging housing stock and infrastructure investments also contribute to the demand for HVAC services and upgrades, ensuring a steady market for manufacturers and distributors.
Air conditioners have had a busy summer. This July was the hottest recorded month since the year 1880.
Deidre Woollard and Motley Fool Senior Analyst Sanmeet Deo dive into the business of staying cool. They discuss:
- The major players and macro landscape for HVAC companies. - Carrier’s transformation. - Growth expectations for heating and cooling companies. - One industry that is incredibly difficult to disrupt.
Companies discussed: CARR, WSO, TT, LLI, FERG
Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Deidre Woolard, Sanmeet Deo Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl