Rebel Capitalist News Yield Curve Inverts (Again!), Consumer Confidence Collapses, Bitcoin Plummets
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Feb 26, 2025 Chris Irons, a financial expert and contributor to the QTR podcast, dives into the unsettling inversion of the yield curve and its alarming effects on consumer confidence and Bitcoin. He critiques the Federal Reserve's rigid 2% inflation target, suggesting it's outdated and arbitrary. The discussion highlights a societal shift from productivity to speculation, raising questions about economic stability. Irons also analyzes Bitcoin's volatility and its implications for investors, emphasizing the risks tied to market dynamics and the importance of transparent evaluations.
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Yield Curve Inversion and Expectations
- The 10-year treasury yield's decline suggests decreasing growth and inflation expectations.
- This is because long-term yields reflect these expectations, not just supply.
Recession, Disinflation, and Gold
- Rate cuts during recessions usually lead to disinflation, not inflation, historically.
- Gold's performance depends on whether a recession includes a liquidity event.
The 2% Target's Origin
- The Fed's 2% inflation target isn't ancient wisdom; it's a recent adoption.
- It originated from New Zealand's central bank for different reasons.