The Newcomer Podcast Which $Billion AI Startup Would You Short?
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Nov 25, 2025 The hosts delve into a provocative survey where attendees pinpoint which billion-dollar AI startup they'd short, with Perplexity leading the pack. They dissect OpenAI's projected $30 billion revenue for 2026 and Nvidia's staggering $6 trillion valuation. Discussions heat up around the implications of agentic AI on workforce dynamics and the future of strong AI, raising questions about whether agents will replace or augment jobs. Insights from industry leaders add depth to the debate on engagement trade-offs and the changing landscape of AI investment.
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Tempered Revenue Optimism For OpenAI
- Conference attendees expected OpenAI to reach ~$30B ARR by end of 2026, showing tempered optimism compared to peak mania.
- The group highlighted revenue growth as the central proof point for AI valuation sustainability.
Nvidia Seen As Core To AI Wealth
- Attendees put Nvidia at a multitrillion-dollar valuation, reflecting hardware's central role in AI economics.
- Panelists warned stock price growth must sustain or expectations will compress rapidly.
AGI Expectations Split Around 2030
- The surveyed crowd split on AGI timelines with a strong mode around 2030, revealing persistent accelerationist sentiment.
- The hosts observed growing AGI skepticism compared to earlier conferences despite some optimists remaining.