Guests David Chao, Mike Dickson, and Minxin Pei discuss market sentiment shift towards AI technology, Japan equity momentum trade, China's third plenum, election impact on asset allocation, differing views on China and Taiwan, and US-China relations in the podcast.
AI's market impact is slow but long-term dominant; Japan's selective equities show potential benefits.
Deep dives
Impacts of AI on Markets and Earnings
The podcast discusses the impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) on markets and earnings. The speaker believes that the AI euphoria is currently taking a break as expected productivity gains from AI have not been fully realized yet. Historical tech innovations like the steam engine took time to show economic gains, suggesting that AI effects may also take longer. Despite the current plateau, the speaker maintains a long-term belief in AI's dominance in the market.
Investment Themes in Japan and China
The podcast explores investment themes in Japan and China. While being selective with Japanese equities due to performance levels, the speaker sees potential benefits for financials from Bank of Japan rate hikes and real estate due to negative real rates. In China, despite past earnings misses, low valuations could lead to positive surprises with potential stimulus efforts supporting equity rallies.
Market Trends Post-Fed Rate Cuts
The podcast delves into market trends post-Federal Reserve rate cuts. The discussion highlights a shift towards selling quality stocks for lower quality ones and the historical outperformance of small caps over tech-heavy NASDAQ. Market reactions anticipate further cuts from the Fed, leading to considerations of portfolio diversification towards domestic-focused small caps sensitive to rates amidst positive retail sales figures.