Housing Rebound? What December's Data Says About the Year
Jan 10, 2025
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The podcast delves into the recent shifts in the real estate market, noting declines in home prices across nearly 60 major cities. While some areas face challenges, others remain resilient or even appreciate. With rising inventory and longer days on market, the need for targeted investment analysis is emphasized. The discussion also highlights the Federal Reserve's interest rate changes and their impact on market dynamics. Insights into potential opportunities and predictions for a possible mid-year recovery make for an engaging listen!
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Quick takeaways
Many real estate markets are experiencing price declines due to seasonal factors, indicating unique opportunities for investors amid a cooling market.
Anticipated changes in the housing inventory and buyer confidence suggest a possible market resurgence by spring 2024, leading to a potential recovery.
Deep dives
Current Housing Market Trends
A significant portion of the U.S. housing market is experiencing price declines, with 59 out of 204 major markets showing decreases year-over-year from December 2023 to December 2024. Seasonal factors contribute to these declines, as demand typically lowers during winter months due to holidays. For instance, markets like Salt Lake City and Raleigh have seen median price drops of 2.5% and 12% respectively, yet these shifts are framed within the larger picture of a slow inventory recovery towards the year's end. It's important to interpret these drops as part of a typical seasonal cycle rather than a collapse of the market.
Influence of Days on Market
Increased days on market across the majority of analyzed markets indicate a cooling demand, which occurs when supply surpasses buyer interest. A total of 202 out of 204 markets reported longer selling times, signaling a potential shift towards a buyer's market. This situation varies widely, as some regions with healthy fundamentals still manage to maintain price increases despite rising inventory. For example, in markets like Kansas City and San Jose, heightened listing durations suggest caution from buyers, reflecting overall market sluggishness.
Future Outlook and Predictions
Looking ahead, there is an expectation that the housing market may see a resurgence in the spring months, particularly from March through May. Factors such as the anticipated breaking of the 'lock-in effect'—where homeowners hesitated to sell due to favorable mortgage rates—are expected to encourage inventory replenishment. This could lead to improved buyer confidence as personal financial conditions stabilize and more options become available. Predictions suggest a market correction towards levels seen in 2017-2019, rather than experiencing the extremes of 2020 and 2021.
In this month’s market report, we analyze the shifting dynamics of the real estate market as 2024 came to a close. Nearly 60 major markets, including Raleigh, Salt Lake City, and Fort Wayne, experienced declines in home prices, signaling potential opportunities for investors. However, rising inventory and days on market didn’t lead to price drops everywhere, with some markets holding firm or even appreciating.
We explore regional trends, highlight the top-performing and cooling markets, and uncover why this transitional phase in real estate presents unique challenges and opportunities.
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