Sam Bresnick, a Research Fellow focused on U.S.-China relations and AI security policy, dives into the fierce competition between the two nations over artificial intelligence. He highlights AI's transformative role in military and economic spheres, examining both the U.S. and China’s unique challenges and advantages. Bresnick discusses the Biden administration's strategies and China's advancements, as well as potential diplomatic routes to mitigate dangerous AI scenarios. The conversation emphasizes the need for a balance between competition and cooperation in tech.
The U.S. and China are leveraging artificial intelligence to reshape military effectiveness, but they face distinct internal and external challenges in development.
China's AI progress is hindered by export controls and a lack of diverse data, while the U.S. struggles with regulatory fragmentation and aging infrastructure.
Deep dives
AI's Impact on International Security
Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to significantly reshape international security dynamics. Leading militaries, particularly the U.S. and China, are adopting AI technologies for various military applications, such as drone swarms and lethal autonomous weapon systems. Additionally, AI is being utilized for decision-making support, helping military operations process vast amounts of data to make informed choices. Beyond the military realm, AI's applications extend to areas like cyber operations, economic interests, and even governance, as seen with Ukraine's use of AI for tracking missile threats and China's extensive surveillance systems.
Comparative Approaches to AI Development
The U.S. government's approach to AI development is multifaceted, involving initiatives led by the White House to ensure ethical use while promoting technological advancement. This includes strategic documents from various departments, notably the Department of Defense, along with support for the private sector in developing large language models. Conversely, China's AI focus encompasses both large models and tailored smaller systems for specific applications—particularly in military contexts, driven by its constraints on semiconductor access. China’s pursuit of alternative technologies, such as brain-computer interfaces and photonic chips, highlights a differing strategic focus compared to the U.S.'s reliance on large language models.
Obstacles Facing China in AI Innovation
China faces significant obstacles in its quest to advance AI technology, primarily stemming from external limitations on innovation and internal structural issues. The U.S. export controls on semiconductors have hindered China's ability to develop a robust semiconductor ecosystem necessary for AI advancements. With a lack of diverse data, especially for military applications, and a sluggish venture capital market, China struggles to compete effectively with the U.S. These factors combine to create a challenging environment that may slow China's progress in leveraging AI for both economic and military purposes.
U.S. Challenges in AI Implementation and Competition
The U.S. faces unique challenges in the implementation of AI technologies, despite its advantages in innovation and operational capability. Issues such as aging infrastructure for electricity generation may hinder the power-intensive data centers needed for AI applications. Additionally, the fragmented nature of AI regulations across states may create obstacles to cohesive policy development. Furthermore, China's burgeoning talent pool and government-subsidized initiatives, aimed at producing world-class technologies, pose long-term competitive threats to the U.S. in the AI landscape.
Sam Bresnick, Research Fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, discusses artificial intelligence in the context of the US-China relationship. He explains how AI will be used by states in coming years and compares different obstacles and advantages that both the US and China have in their competition to develop AI and its various applications. Among other topics, he also discusses diplomatic pathways for the US and China to avoid dangerous AI scenarios.