The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Will the November CPI report catalyze the much-anticipated Santa Claus rally?
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Dec 18, 2025 Darius Dale explores whether the November CPI report can kickstart a Santa Claus rally. He discusses the surprising implications of distorted inflation data and predicts policy easing into 2026. Notably, he highlights the smallest advance in shelter CPI in over four years and the impact of the recent government shutdown on CPI readings. With rising labor-market risks, he provides insights into market trends as the year comes to a close.
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Dovish CPI Could Spark Year-End Rally
- November CPI's slowdown makes a Santa Claus rally increasingly plausible as December OpEx could unpin markets higher.
- Darius Dale argues the data strengthen the dovish case and raise the odds of easing in H1 2026.
Disinflation Shows Up In Shelter And Core CPI
- Core CPI fell to a 2.6% year-over-year pace and headline CPI to 2.7%, both down from ~3% two months prior.
- Shelter's 3% advance is the smallest gain in over four years, signaling broadening disinflation.
Shutdown May Have Biased November CPI Lower
- The government shutdown likely distorted October and November CPI sampling and timing, biasing readings lower.
- Economists warn that delayed collection and Black Friday discounts may have skewed results materially.