The Value Perspective

The Value Perspective podcast with Dan Rasmussen - REPLAY

May 11, 2023

Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Capital, a deep value investor and history buff, discusses his learning from the Covid Crisis, the importance of base rates in investment analysis, and strategies for navigating paradigm shifts in financial markets

54:12

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Episode guests

Dan Rasmussen

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Quick takeaways

Base rates and historical probabilities should be relied upon for informed investment decisions, rather than personal narratives or emotions.

Overlooking the risks of overvaluation and increased bankruptcy risk can have detrimental consequences in investment strategies.

Combining quantitative analysis with qualitative insights allows for more informed investment decisions by aligning personal experience with base rates and probabilities.

Deep dives

The Importance of Base Rates and Meta-Analysis in Investing

In this podcast episode, Dan Rasmus, founder and portfolio manager at Verda Capital, discusses the significance of base rates and meta-analysis in making investment decisions. He emphasizes the need to rely on historical probabilities and base rates rather than personal narratives or emotions. Rasmus explains how understanding the distribution of outcomes based on base rates and incorporating economic conditions into the analysis can lead to more informed investment decisions. He also highlights the importance of diversifying portfolios with uncorrelated strategies and considering different economic conditions to mitigate risk. Additionally, he touches upon the challenges of market timing and the risks of disregarding base rates and long-term probabilities when making investment choices.

Introduction

2min

An in-depth discussion on the guest speaker's background, their approach to investing, and their firm's focus on deep value strategies

2min

Deep Value Investing and Leverage

6min

The Divided Opinions on Growth and Value Investing

26min

Incorporating Base Rates in Investment Analysis

10min

Market Timing, Value Drops, and Navigating Paradigm Shifts

3min

Bad decision and book recommendation

4min

Next week, we welcome Dan Rasmussen, the founder of Verdad Capital, back to the podcast for a second time. So we thought it would be worthwhile replaying our previous conversation back in June 2021 in case you may have missed it or would like to listen to it again.

Dan is a deep value investor and a history buff who discussed his learning from the Covid Crisis over the previous year, how he utilises base rates in investment and how his interest in history (and not just financial) helps him make decisions.

You can find Dan on Twitter at @verdadcap

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Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds.

The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall.

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The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

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