InvestorKit Podcast The 18.6 Year Cycle: Is an Aussie Property Crash Actually Coming? - with Junge Ma
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Dec 16, 2025 
Junge Ma, a Senior Research Analyst at InvestorKit, dives into the nuances of the Australian property market. He challenges the validity of the infamous 18.6-year real estate cycle, arguing that it's based on outdated data. Instead, Junge highlights the importance of modern economic factors, technological advances, and local market conditions. He emphasizes evidence-based investing and provides practical indicators like vacancy rates and supply-demand analysis, helping listeners navigate the complexities of property investment without falling prey to outdated theories.
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Old Data Drives A Flawed Cycle
- The 18.6-year cycle was built from 19th–20th century US data and predates globalization and modern policy frameworks.
- Junge Ma argues these structural changes make the cycle irrelevant for today's Australian market.
US History Undermines The Cycle
- The US housing record over recent decades already breaks the neat 18.6-year pattern in multiple places.
- Junge Ma shows the annotated peaks and missing/irregular peaks to demonstrate the theory's inconsistency.
Property Behavior Is Local, Not Global
- Property markets are highly local, driven by local interest rates, migration and industry cycles rather than US trends.
- Australia’s cities respond to domestic factors like migration and commodity prices, not a universal cycle.