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Bogleheads® Live

Christine Benz on correlations & sustainable distributions

Jun 7, 2022
Christine Benz, Morningstar’s Director of Personal Finance and author, shares insights on asset correlations and sustainable withdrawal strategies. She discusses how rising global market correlations affect diversification and portfolio resilience, plus the distinction between correlation and causation. Benz emphasizes the need for realistic financial assumptions, advocating for a sustainable distribution rate of 1.9%. She also explores the changing dynamics between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, alongside details about an upcoming investor conference.
39:58

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Investors should prioritize assets with low correlations, as they stabilize portfolios during market downturns and enhance diversification.
  • Sustainable distribution rates in retirement are critical, with a cautious starting withdrawal rate of around 3.3% offering a 90% success rate over 30 years.

Deep dives

Understanding Asset Correlation

Asset correlation plays a crucial role in portfolio diversification, with low correlation between assets reducing the risk of simultaneous declines in value. For instance, while U.S. stocks and junk bonds typically share a high correlation, U.S. stocks tend to show a low correlation with U.S. treasuries during downturns. This dynamic allows investors to construct portfolios with a variety of assets that behave differently under various market conditions, enhancing stability. In recent years, categories like commodities have demonstrated a negative correlation with equities, underscoring the importance of including diverse asset types in investment strategies.

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