"The Bond Market Is Going To Continue To Be A Problem" | Bill Fleckenstein

10 snips

May 15, 2025

In this discussion, Bill Fleckenstein, a veteran money manager and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, dives deep into the treacherous waters of the bond market. He reveals how soaring Treasury yields are straining federal debt, surpassing defense spending. Bill shares insights on the tricky balancing act the government faces in taming yields and the potential repercussions for the economy. With rising interest rates and a burgeoning national debt, he emphasizes the importance of cautious investment strategies, particularly in volatile times.

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INSIGHT

Debt Crisis Threatens Bond Market

America's debt and bond market pose a persistent risk to economic stability.
The large national debt and deficits make controlling Treasury yields extremely challenging.

INSIGHT

Narrow Goldilocks Zone for Debt

The economy must hit a narrow Goldilocks zone to manage debt and avoid crisis.
Maintaining mild GDP growth and inflation keeps bond yields manageable, but this balance is hard to achieve.

ADVICE

Sell Until Stress Subsides

Watch your investment stress signals and sell positions until you stop obsessing over them.
Reducing stress in your portfolio helps you make better, clearer decisions.

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It's said that the "Trump put" on financial markets is not on the S&P in this second term, but rather on the 10year US Treasury yield.The rise in Treasury yields since 2022 has sent the cost of servicing America's federal debt to record highs, exceeding spending on national defense for fiscal year 2024.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated his and the President's desire to get the 10year yield comfortably under 4%....but that's proving difficult.In fact, after falling to 4.1% two week ago, the yield has quickly shot back up to near 4.5% as of the day of this recording.Why is it proving so tricky to tame bond yields?And what will it mean for the economy & markets if they can't be?For answers, we have the great fortune today of turning to veteran money manager Bill Fleckenstein and founder of Fleckenstein capital.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bonds #interestrates #gold _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.