Establish the Edge Fantasy Football Week 1 DFS - Win GPPs by Being Early
Sep 2, 2025
Explore the dynamics of Week 1 DFS as Mike Leone dives into player projections and strategies. Discover how to identify underappreciated players to maximize value while navigating the uncertainties of the opening weekend. Learn the art of taking calculated risks and avoiding overcommitment to potential underperformers in this thrilling start to the NFL season.
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Week One Offers Maximum Projection Edge
- Week one is the best time to 'play it before you see it' because projections are more uncertain than any other week.
- That uncertainty creates unusually large opportunities to find low-ownership, high-upside plays if you’re right.
Stable Stars Versus Volatile Rookies
- Some players (elite volume receivers) are stable enough that week-one results rarely change projections materially.
- Rookies and unsettled roles produce the largest re-projection swings after Week 1.
Require Clear Upside And Ownership Edge
- Only play a 'before you see it' shot when you believe the upside would make the player a top slate option if you're right.
- Also ensure the player carries a meaningful ownership or salary discount so the payoff is disproportionate.