In Moscow's Shadows 139: Why Even Sham Elections Can Matter
Mar 17, 2024
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Exploring Russia's manipulated elections, potential cabinet reshuffle, loyalist elite cultivation, soldier mobilization for Ukraine. Analyzing Putin's promises, election rigging, regional dynamics. Spotlight on Sergei Kiriyanka's political influence. Post-election military mobilization, economic challenges. Historical power dynamics, symbolic protest against the regime.
55:09
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Quick takeaways
Russian elections serve as legitimizing ritual, not democratic process.
Post-election elite reshuffle signals cultivation of younger loyalist elite.
Deep dives
Analysis of the Presidential Elections in Russia
Putin is expected to secure a substantial victory in the presidential elections in Russia. However, the focus isn't only on the results but also on the underlying processes within the country. The outcome serves as a legitimizing ritual rather than a genuine democratic decision. There is anticipation surrounding the announced vote figures and their alignment with the actual vote counts.
Potential Implications for Opposition Parties
The performance of opposition parties, such as the communists and liberal democrats, could signify shifts in political dynamics. The impact of Devankov's candidacy on the communist party's ranking is under scrutiny. The election results may indicate evolving perceptions of opposition parties and their leadership.
Addressing Elite Reshuffles and Policy Shifts
The post-election period might witness elite reshuffling as Putin navigates towards a new generation of political figures. Speculations around potential changes in key positions like Defense Minister and Foreign Minister are rife. This shift signals a broader strategy to cultivate a younger elite cohort aligned with Putin's vision.
Implications for Military Mobilization and Economic Policies
There are discussions about potential military mobilization in response to certain regional and territorial aims. Policy adjustments post-elections are expected, including a focus on defense industries and balancing a militarized economy with civilian life. The elections serve as a tipping point for potential shifts in economic and military strategies in Russia.
Russia's presidential elections are coming to a close, and while Putin's landslide victory is a foregone conclusion in light of the manipulation of the process (I write about that here), that doesn't mean these elections don't matter. I discuss the things I'll be looking for, ranging from how the votes are allocated, through the potential for a cabinet reshuffle, to how this fits into wider political processes, from the cultivation of a new loyalist elite to the risk of a further mobilisation of soldiers for Ukraine.
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