The Presidential Election Has Become An Unpopularity Contest
Apr 1, 2024
54:53
auto_awesome Snipd AI
Dive into Americans' fear of flying, shifting views on airline safety, and the impact of new Census survey designs. Explore the legal complexities of abortion medication cases, challenges faced by third-party candidates, and the consequences of unpopular presidential candidates on third-party votes.
Read more
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
Third party candidates face challenges in gaining access to state ballots due to varying requirements and potential hurdles like naming a vice presidential candidate on petition papers.
Both major party candidates, Trump and Biden, have historically low favorability ratings, indicating significant dissatisfaction among voters and raising speculation about potential third party impact.
Deep dives
RFK Jr. Ballot Access Efforts
RFK Jr. is officially on one state ballot in Utah, but his campaign is actively gathering signatures in seven other states, such as New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada. The Nevada situation has hit a hurdle due to naming the vice presidential candidate on petition papers, leading to complications. However, RFK Jr.'s significant funding and name recognition may help him secure access on most, if not all, state ballots by the election.
Third Party Candidates and Ballot Access
The Libertarian Party has secured ballot access in about 36 states, nearing the threshold of 270 electoral votes. New Labels is at around 23 states, following a strategy of becoming a party organization in 32 states and relying on candidate efforts in the remaining states. Different states have varying requirements for ballot access, with options including gathering signatures or registering a certain percentage of voters under the party label.
Third Party Impact on Election
Historically, third party candidates tend to lose support as the election approaches, leading to a return to major party voting for strategic reasons. RFK Jr.'s high initial polling numbers may be tempered as awareness grows and voters opt for major party candidates. The unpopularity of the major party candidates like Trump and Biden has raised speculation about potential third party impact, but the historical trend suggests limited actual influence on the final election outcome.
Presidential Candidates' Unpopularity Analysis
Analysis shows that both Trump and Biden have negative favorability ratings, with Trump at -10 and Biden at -15, resulting in a combined -12 rating, indicating significant dissatisfaction with the mainstream candidates. These ratings are among the lowest in history, with 2016 as the only election surpassing such negativity. The presence of a highly controversial candidate like RFK Jr. may further complicate the landscape, but the major party candidates are still the frontrunners.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on race and ethnicity is a “good or bad use of polling.” Later in the episode, they pivot to discuss the Supreme Court's hearing on restrictions surrounding the abortion medication mifepristone, and explore the challenges third-party candidates face in getting on the ballot.