Consumer sector specialist Scott Feiler discusses the state of the US consumer market, delving into rising rates' impact on spending, differences in income demographics, growth in travel and services sectors, revival of apparel trends, influence of labor market on lower-end consumers, earnings season expectations, investor behavior in consumer stocks, and the significance of top-line performance for stock market rewards.
Job market remains robust with more job openings than seekers, providing optimism for consumer stability.
Investors prefer high-income-exposed names in the travel sector, showcasing selective investing based on consumer trends.
Deep dives
Consumer Sector Performance Overview
The recent retail earnings season highlighted the consumer sector's performance, indicating a shift in consumer behavior. While there are concerns about a slow start in the first quarter, the job market remains robust with more job openings than seekers, providing optimism for consumer stability. Despite some modest slowdowns, the consumer space shows a mixed picture with significant variations across income demographics, showcasing resilience in certain areas.
Investor Focus Areas in Consumer Sector
Investors are closely monitoring consumer trends, showing a preference for high-income-exposed names in the travel sector. The dispersion in consumer performance leads to a selective approach in investing, favoring companies catering to experiences over goods. With a resurgence in apparel and footwear segments, investors are optimistic about the continuing recovery in pricing and consumer spending patterns amidst varying impacts of rates across income groups.
Recent earnings and economic data are putting the US consumer in focus. So what have we learned about the state of the consumer, and which subsectors are coming out ahead? Scott Feiler, a consumer sector specialist in Global Banking & Markets, joins Goldman Sachs Research’s Chris Hussey to discuss how investors are weighing the US consumer.